Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

According to the UN, recent flooding has affected more than 900,000 people, primarily in agropastoral areas of Jonglei and Upper Nile.  

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Escalated conflict in Aden, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah since August has increased access constraints. Fuel shortages are beginning to manifest, expected to further increase food prices. 

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2019 main season. Over 2 million people are currently internally displaced.

Current Observations

Damage from heavy flooding in Adamawa state at the end of October further decreased agricultural production in the insecure region.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Current Observations

Confirmed Ebola cases per week have dropped to their lowest number since mid-January. 

Reason for Concern

The 2018/19 rainfall season was among the worst on record in parts of the country characterized by drought conditions. Additionally, the macroeconomy is highly volatile affecting household food access.

Current Observations

Maize grain and bread prices continue to increase, and supply is limited in markets in areas of the country. Between September and October, bread prices in Harare increased by 60 percent and maize grain increased by 35 percent.

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Gu/long rains season was well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Current Observations

The eastern Horn received exceptionally heavy rainfall in the first two weeks of October. Rainfall totals are 100 to 300 mm above average in many areas.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

The start of the 2019/20 season across many parts of the region is erratic, with a delayed start in Lesotho and parts of central Mozambique and Madagascar.  

Reason for Concern

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Current Observations

Due to below average domestic maize grain supply, prices in September were over 63 percent and 45 percent above last year’s prices and the five-year average, respectively.  Maize grain prices are expected to continue increasing through the start of 2020.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 750,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

Burkina Faso has experienced more than a 500 percent increase in the number of IDPS since the beginning of 2019, with nearly 500,000 IDPs registered by mid-October.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

According to the UN, recent flooding has affected more than 900,000 people, primarily in agropastoral areas of Jonglei and Upper Nile.  

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Escalated conflict in Aden, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah since August has increased access constraints. Fuel shortages are beginning to manifest, expected to further increase food prices. 

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2019 main season. Over 2 million people are currently internally displaced.

Damage from heavy flooding in Adamawa state at the end of October further decreased agricultural production in the insecure region.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Confirmed Ebola cases per week have dropped to their lowest number since mid-January. 

Zimbabwe

The 2018/19 rainfall season was among the worst on record in parts of the country characterized by drought conditions. Additionally, the macroeconomy is highly volatile affecting household food access.

Maize grain and bread prices continue to increase, and supply is limited in markets in areas of the country. Between September and October, bread prices in Harare increased by 60 percent and maize grain increased by 35 percent.

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Gu/long rains season was well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

The eastern Horn received exceptionally heavy rainfall in the first two weeks of October. Rainfall totals are 100 to 300 mm above average in many areas.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

The start of the 2019/20 season across many parts of the region is erratic, with a delayed start in Lesotho and parts of central Mozambique and Madagascar.  

Mozambique

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Due to below average domestic maize grain supply, prices in September were over 63 percent and 45 percent above last year’s prices and the five-year average, respectively.  Maize grain prices are expected to continue increasing through the start of 2020.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 750,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

Burkina Faso has experienced more than a 500 percent increase in the number of IDPS since the beginning of 2019, with nearly 500,000 IDPs registered by mid-October.

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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