Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Conflict near Deim Zubier of Raga has led to displacement and disrupted cultivation, increasing concern for this county.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

The number of conflict-related deaths in 2018 through May was more than 2,600 people, and 768 more deaths than the same period of 2017, representing a 40 percent increase in conflict fatalities.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Attack on Al Hudaydah raises concerns about the potential for damage to port facilities and disruptions to imports.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

More than 50,000 households in Ethiopia have been displaced by flooding since the beginning of 2018.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

Heavy rainfall and flooding in northwestern Somalia, driven by Cyclone Sagar, displaced an estimated 27,000 people.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

The recent intensification in violent events in Eastern DRC is raising increased concerns about stability in the region.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Current Observations

Remote sensing data indicates that rangeland conditions in parts of the northwest are the worst on record for early May, with data since 2002.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

South Africa's final maize forecast indicates that 2018 production is slightly above average, while Zambia's production is 33.6% lower than 2017 levels.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Conflict near Deim Zubier of Raga has led to displacement and disrupted cultivation, increasing concern for this county.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

The number of conflict-related deaths in 2018 through May was more than 2,600 people, and 768 more deaths than the same period of 2017, representing a 40 percent increase in conflict fatalities.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Attack on Al Hudaydah raises concerns about the potential for damage to port facilities and disruptions to imports.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

More than 50,000 households in Ethiopia have been displaced by flooding since the beginning of 2018.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Heavy rainfall and flooding in northwestern Somalia, driven by Cyclone Sagar, displaced an estimated 27,000 people.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

The recent intensification in violent events in Eastern DRC is raising increased concerns about stability in the region.

Afghanistan

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Remote sensing data indicates that rangeland conditions in parts of the northwest are the worst on record for early May, with data since 2002.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

South Africa's final maize forecast indicates that 2018 production is slightly above average, while Zambia's production is 33.6% lower than 2017 levels.

Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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