Areas of Highest Concern
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.
There is high concern for food security outcomes in Pibor and Greater Kapoeta, where cattle raiding persists, depriving many households of regular access to a key food source.
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.
In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached.
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.
Wheat flour imports increased and were at or near monthly imports requirements in March 2018, following declines in January and February.
Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.
Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance.
Other Areas of Concern
Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.
Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer.
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.
As conflict continues in Ituri and Nord Kivu Provinces, internal displacement and external displacement, primarily to Uganda, is ongoing.
Conflict remains widespread and continues to disrupt livelihoods. Below-average precipitation will likely reduce yields for staple crops including wheat. Rangeland conditions are poor in some areas, particularly in the northwest and north.
Preliminary reports indicate that livestock prices in the driest areas of the northwest and north have declined by 20 – 30 percent, reflecting poor body conditions and atypical sales.
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.
Because of below-normal yields and crop failure, the main harvest will only temporarily improve household food availability, however, in some cases not at all.
Areas of Highest Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Current Observations |
|---|---|---|
| South Sudan |
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access. |
There is high concern for food security outcomes in Pibor and Greater Kapoeta, where cattle raiding persists, depriving many households of regular access to a key food source. |
| Nigeria |
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced. |
In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached. |
| Yemen |
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households. |
Wheat flour imports increased and were at or near monthly imports requirements in March 2018, following declines in January and February. |
| Ethiopia |
Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access. |
Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance. |
Other Areas of Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Current Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Somalia |
Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average. |
Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer. |
| DRC |
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods. |
As conflict continues in Ituri and Nord Kivu Provinces, internal displacement and external displacement, primarily to Uganda, is ongoing. |
| Afghanistan |
Conflict remains widespread and continues to disrupt livelihoods. Below-average precipitation will likely reduce yields for staple crops including wheat. Rangeland conditions are poor in some areas, particularly in the northwest and north. |
Preliminary reports indicate that livestock prices in the driest areas of the northwest and north have declined by 20 – 30 percent, reflecting poor body conditions and atypical sales. |
| Southern Africa |
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe. |
Because of below-normal yields and crop failure, the main harvest will only temporarily improve household food availability, however, in some cases not at all. |
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.
