Areas of Highest Concern
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.
The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.
In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.
According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states.
Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.
In Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, conflict between non-state actors in late March displaced over 21,000 people and led to the loss of life.
Other Areas of Concern
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.
The number of confirmed Ebola cases and deaths in North Kivu is rising, which in combination with conflict is limiting household access to livelihoods and markets.
Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.
The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.
The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.
Siginificantly below-average rainfall since March is contributing to rapid deterioration in pasture and water availability as well as poor cropping conditions across the Horn.
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.
Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.
Areas of Highest Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| South Sudan |
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access. |
The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018. |
| Yemen |
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households. |
In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February. |
| Nigeria |
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced. |
According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states. |
| Afghanistan |
Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement. |
In Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, conflict between non-state actors in late March displaced over 21,000 people and led to the loss of life. |
Other Areas of Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| DRC |
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. |
The number of confirmed Ebola cases and deaths in North Kivu is rising, which in combination with conflict is limiting household access to livelihoods and markets. |
| Madagascar |
Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes. |
The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production. |
| Horn of Africa |
The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought. |
Siginificantly below-average rainfall since March is contributing to rapid deterioration in pasture and water availability as well as poor cropping conditions across the Horn. |
| Southern Africa |
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe. |
Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record. |
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.
