Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The start of the March to May first season rains in Greater Equatoria was 10-30 days late, and rainfall was below average and poorly distributed.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

WFP considering suspending humanitarian aid in parts of Yemen, citing obstruction and a lack of cooperation by some Houthi authorities.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

According to IOM, as the rainy season starts, a total of 41 camps hosting more than 300,000 IDPs are considered prone to flooding. 

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Current Observations

Recent moderate to heavy Gu/long rains has partially alleviated pasture and water deficits, but pastoral and cropping conditions remain poor to fair.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

According to data released by the Nutrition Cluster this month, the prevalence of acute malnutrition in March 2019 was Serious (GAM (MUAC) 5-9.9%) or Critical (>10%) across the country. 

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu, is ongoing in part due to continuing conflict and mistrust of medical services, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets. 

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Food security outcomes slightly improve with the harvest despite being below average; however, the improvement is anticipated for the near-term.

Reason for Concern

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Current Observations

The number of reported cholera cases remained in Sofala province; although in  Cabo Delgado, the outbreak continues with 225 cumulative reported cases from March 27 to May 21. 

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

Livestock prices in southern Madagascar are increasing, leading to improved market access for poor households. 

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The start of the March to May first season rains in Greater Equatoria was 10-30 days late, and rainfall was below average and poorly distributed.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

WFP considering suspending humanitarian aid in parts of Yemen, citing obstruction and a lack of cooperation by some Houthi authorities.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

According to IOM, as the rainy season starts, a total of 41 camps hosting more than 300,000 IDPs are considered prone to flooding. 

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Recent moderate to heavy Gu/long rains has partially alleviated pasture and water deficits, but pastoral and cropping conditions remain poor to fair.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

According to data released by the Nutrition Cluster this month, the prevalence of acute malnutrition in March 2019 was Serious (GAM (MUAC) 5-9.9%) or Critical (>10%) across the country. 

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu, is ongoing in part due to continuing conflict and mistrust of medical services, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets. 

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Food security outcomes slightly improve with the harvest despite being below average; however, the improvement is anticipated for the near-term.

Mozambique

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

The number of reported cholera cases remained in Sofala province; although in  Cabo Delgado, the outbreak continues with 225 cumulative reported cases from March 27 to May 21. 

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Livestock prices in southern Madagascar are increasing, leading to improved market access for poor households. 

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Food security outlook story map

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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