Areas of Highest Concern
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.
Severe acute food insecurity expected in Gogrial West and Twic of Warrap during the 2019 lean season, following several conflict and weather shocks in 2018.
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.
Yemen’s warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in Al Hudaydah City on December 13, with future peace talks planned for January 2019.
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.
According to IOM, 8,248 new arrivals have been counted between December 24 and 31 from Baga in Kukawa LGA into MMC and Jere.
Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.
Negative rainfall anomalies persist across the country, particularly in the central highlands. However, widespread heavy snow is forecast at the beginning of January and will likely reduce deficits.
Other Areas of Concern
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.
The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, which has killed 241 people since August 2018, is set to become the second largest in the country’s history.
Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.
Rainfall from the 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but seed availability is limiting planting.
The 2018 Deyr/short rains season is well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.
The October to December rainy season concluded with below-average rainfall performance across southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and most of Somalia. Crop losses and accelerated pasture and water depletion are most likely.
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.
Planting has started across most of the region; however, the planting has been delayed by upwards of 40 days in parts of South Africa, southern DRC, and Lesotho.
Areas of Highest Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| South Sudan |
Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access. |
Severe acute food insecurity expected in Gogrial West and Twic of Warrap during the 2019 lean season, following several conflict and weather shocks in 2018. |
| Yemen |
The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households. |
Yemen’s warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in Al Hudaydah City on December 13, with future peace talks planned for January 2019. |
| Nigeria |
Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced. |
According to IOM, 8,248 new arrivals have been counted between December 24 and 31 from Baga in Kukawa LGA into MMC and Jere. |
| Afghanistan |
Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement. |
Negative rainfall anomalies persist across the country, particularly in the central highlands. However, widespread heavy snow is forecast at the beginning of January and will likely reduce deficits. |
Other Areas of Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| DRC |
Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. |
The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, which has killed 241 people since August 2018, is set to become the second largest in the country’s history. |
| Madagascar |
Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes. |
Rainfall from the 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but seed availability is limiting planting. |
| Horn of Africa |
The 2018 Deyr/short rains season is well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought. |
The October to December rainy season concluded with below-average rainfall performance across southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and most of Somalia. Crop losses and accelerated pasture and water depletion are most likely. |
| Southern Africa |
Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe. |
Planting has started across most of the region; however, the planting has been delayed by upwards of 40 days in parts of South Africa, southern DRC, and Lesotho. |
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About FEWS NET
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.
