Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Conflict has increased significantly in the Great Baggari in October.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

Many areas in the northeast remain insecure during the main harvest period, and regional production is expected to once again be below average.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Officials from the UN, the ICRC, Save the Children, Islamic Relief, CARE and other organizations launch calls for a political solution to the conflict in Yemen.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

The start of October-December rainfall in the southeast has been below-average although forecasts call for average to slightly below accumulation for the season.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Although the April to June 2018 Gu rainy season has led to improvements, most regions are still recovering from prolonged drought and the associated impact of large-scale livestock losses and poor production.

Current Observations

Atypical rainfall in the Northwest may improve rangeland resources. However, current forecasts indicate a 1 to 2 week delay to the start of the Deyr in south/central Somalia.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

In October, at least 200,000 Congolese nationals have been expelled from Angola into the Kasai region leading to growing concerns of a renewed humanitarian crisis in the region.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Current Observations

High elevation snowfall has begun in the northeastern part of the country and precipitation is generally at or above average.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Updated forecasts suggest that average rainfall is increasingly likely during the 2018/19 rainy season.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Conflict has increased significantly in the Great Baggari in October.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Many areas in the northeast remain insecure during the main harvest period, and regional production is expected to once again be below average.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Officials from the UN, the ICRC, Save the Children, Islamic Relief, CARE and other organizations launch calls for a political solution to the conflict in Yemen.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

The start of October-December rainfall in the southeast has been below-average although forecasts call for average to slightly below accumulation for the season.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Although the April to June 2018 Gu rainy season has led to improvements, most regions are still recovering from prolonged drought and the associated impact of large-scale livestock losses and poor production.

Atypical rainfall in the Northwest may improve rangeland resources. However, current forecasts indicate a 1 to 2 week delay to the start of the Deyr in south/central Somalia.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

In October, at least 200,000 Congolese nationals have been expelled from Angola into the Kasai region leading to growing concerns of a renewed humanitarian crisis in the region.

Afghanistan

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

High elevation snowfall has begun in the northeastern part of the country and precipitation is generally at or above average.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Updated forecasts suggest that average rainfall is increasingly likely during the 2018/19 rainy season.

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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