Key Message Update

Irregular rainfall affects the poorest households in Central America and Haiti

June 2019

May 2019

Most of the region in phases 1 and 2, except for dry corridor in Guatemala and certain areas in Haiti in phase 3.

June - September 2019

Most of the region in phases 1 and 2, except for dry corridor in Guatemala and certain areas in Haiti in phase 3.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • El Niño conditions are forecast up to January 2020, rains with irregular distribution in time and space during May have been observed with low accumulations affecting the beginning of basic grain crops in the region. In Guatemala and El Salvador, cumulated rainfall is above average during May, but distribution was not adequate. Above normal temperatures have favored evapotranspiration and could affect the soil moisture.

  • In Central America, maize supplies remained sufficient but continued to decline, thanks to carryover stocks and imports. Maize and bean price were stable, except in Nicaragua with both prices declining in April. In Haiti, markets are well supplied. Local maize and black bean prices increased in April while imported rice and maize meal prices were stable but above average.

  • In Haiti, maize and bean plantations are beginning to be harvested in certain areas. Maize and beans crops in irrigated plains forecast good harvests. However, the situation is difficult in drought-prone areas, particularly the Far North and the southern peninsula.

  • In Central America, due to depleted stocks, the poorest households will rely on the market during the May-August period. Due to limited income sources, they will adopt coping strategies including the sale of their livelihood assets, purchase of none preferred foods, reducing meals and rations and migration to urban centers or abroad.

  • As livelihoods keep deteriorating due to crop losses, reduced incomes and food prices above average, poor households continue to engage in negative coping strategies to meet their food needs. They will be in Stress (IPC, Phase 2). However, there is a number of poorest households, that are facing a longer lean season relying more on the market without options of income generation are facing Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) food security outcomes, particularly in Haiti and Guatemala.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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