Seasonal Monitor

Above-average water availability as main season harvest and second season planting approach

May 22, 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • The 2018/19 wet season is concluding with cumulative rainfall 105 to 145 percent and higher of the long-term average across the country, mostly due to persistent weak El Niño conditions throughout the season.

  • The snowmelt water availability significantly decreased as is typical this time of year. The snowmelt is concluding across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack.

  • The seasonal abundance of rain and snow water has benefitted winter and spring wheat and is likely to facilitate second season cropping.

  • The most likely above-average temperatures in the coming months are likely to benefit grain formation/hardening and timely harvest of winter and spring wheat.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

Precipitation anomalies:

Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the country. Most areas received upwards of 150 percent of long-term normal with relatively small areas in the northeast and southwest experiencing average to slightly above average conditions.  The excess rainfall will continue to provide abundant water during flowering and maturity of winter and spring wheat in May to June.

Snowpack and snow water storage:

Figure 2 indicates the completion of snowpack in most parts of the country except at higher elevations. The timing of the snowpack depletion is typical for this time of year in the region.

Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snowmelt water availability is concluding on time across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack. The above-average snowmelt water availability during the 2018/19 season has been beneficial for replenishing reservoirs and providing above average water for irrigated wheat crops.

 

FORECASTS

Precipitation

Figure 4. Cumulative precipitation forecasts for 7-day periods ending May 28 and June 4 are shown in the left and right panels of Figure 4 respectively. Medium to heavy rain (30 to 80 mm) is forecast over the eastern, northeastern, and central provinces for the period ending May 28 (left panel). Thereafter typical, dry conditions are expected across the country except for light rains (15 to 30 mm) in northern Badakhshan and Nuristan provinces for the period ending June 4 (right panel).

Temperature:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast of 2-meter air temperature anomalies for June to August (with May initial conditions) indicates 40 to 60 percent probability of above-average temperatures in the northern region (Figure 5). The above-average temperatures are expected to provide necessary thermal energy for healthy grain filling and grain hardening of wheat in May to June. The above-average temperatures are also likely to facilitate timely harvest of wheat.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo