Key Message Update

Above-average Season 2019 C production contributing to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes

September 2019

September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Household food stocks and market stocks from the Season 2019 B harvests are above normal. Ongoing above-average Season 2019 C production and perennial bananas, roots, and tubers are also contributing to food availability. Above-average Season 2020 A production is also expected, given access to subsidized inputs and an above-average September-December rainfall forecast. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through January; however, some poor households may become Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as their food stocks become depleted at the peak of the lean season in November. In addition, households in flood- and landslide-prone areas could face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

  • A recent agreement between Burundi and Tanzania is expected to increase the monthly number of voluntary Burundian returnees to around 8,000 per month beginning in October, compared to 1,700 to 3,500 per month from February to July. This would substantially increase humanitarian food assistance needs, placing additional strain on scarce resources. WFP already anticipates ration cuts for returnees as well as Congolese refugees beginning in September. Without significant food assistance, new returnees and Congolese refugees would likely deteriorate from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics, food prices generally remained relatively stable from July to August. However, seasonal price increases for beans were higher than normal. In the reference market of Kirundo, bean prices increased 20 percent from August to September to 1,200 FBu/kg. Production has not kept pace with demand for most of 2019, and the additional price increase is likely due to increased demand for beans during the lean season and for use as seeds for planting. Staple food prices are expected to increase until the December harvests, but will most likely remain below the three-year average.

  • The Government of Burundi has reported a sustained decline in malaria incidence due to various control measures since August. Data from the World Health Organization on malaria incidence is not yet available

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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