Key Message Update

Deyr/Hageya rainfall significantly below average over southeastern Ethiopia

November 2016

November 2016 - January 2017

Ethiopia November 2016 Food Security Projections for November to January

February - May 2017

Ethiopia November 2016 Food Security Projections for February to May

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Meher harvests starting in October have begun to improve food security in many areas and significantly reduced the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. However, poor Kiremt rainfall in eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR, low livestock holdings in pastoral southern Afar and Shinile, and poor performance of October to December rainfall in southeastern pastoral areas are likely to lead to above-average food assistance needs in 2016/17. 

  • The Deyr/Hageya (October to December) season has largely failed in southern Somali Region, with rainfall only slightly better in South Omo of SNNPR, and Bale, Guji, and Borena of Oromia. Following locally poor Gu 2016 rains and the dry season between May and September, severe water and pasture shortages are being reported. Livestock body conditions are deteriorating and atypical livestock migration and deaths have been reported, particularly in Afder and Borena woredas. Livestock births and productivity will likely remain below average into 2017. 

  • A combination of higher than normal staple food prices and deteriorating livestock body conditions are contributing to below-average purchasing power for households in southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas. For example, wholesale maize prices in Sodo and Gode markets in October 2016 were 23 percent and 8 percent higher than in October 2015, and 13 and 46 percent higher than the recent five-year average. In Gode, goats-to-maize terms of trade (TOT) were about 44 percent lower than the recent five-year average.

  • Staple food prices remain above average in most local markets of the country. Apart from slight reductions in grain prices reported from the northern parts of the country following the start of fresh harvest, staple food prices in northern, central, southern, and southeastern markets remain higher than usual. For instance, the October 2016 price of maize in Mekele and Dire Dawa markets are 24 and 26 percent higher, respectively, compared to October 2015.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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