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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Declines in rangeland resources leading to earlier-than-normal livestock migration

January 2019

January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Performance of the October to December short rains was highly mixed across Kenya, leading to below-average crop performance and inadequate replenishment of rangeland resources in rainfall-deficit areas. In many pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas, rainfall was below 85 percent of normal, while rainfall in the rest of the country was above average. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist in most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through May, and an increase in the number of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in localized areas of Turkana, Wajir, and Garissa by February.

  • Aside from Isiolo and Mandera, early declines in water and rangeland resources in pastoral zones have caused trekking distances from grazing areas to watering points to increase to 25 to 50 percent above average. This has led to earlier-than-normal livestock migration in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, and Garissa, which is likely to increase conflict incidents. Despite these trends, household purchasing power and food access remain stable as the goat-to-maize terms of trade was 10 to 50 percent above the five-year average in December.

  • In marginal agricultural areas, prevailing crop moisture stress is likely to result in significant total yield losses, though maize crops are currently at different growth stages given erratic rainfall distribution. Along the coast, maize crops are in the early maturing stages. In the southeast, maize crops are in the vegetative stages in moisture-stressed parts of Kitui, Mbeere, and Tharaka Nithi and in the grain filling stages in Makueni. Short-cycle legumes are also at various stages of development, ranging from flowering to harvesting.

  • From November to December, wholesale maize prices were 10 to 30 percent below the five-year average, attributed to consistent cross-border imports, high carryover stocks, and recent above-average harvests from the high and medium agricultural potential areas of the Rift Valley and western Kenya. Despite significant losses from excessive rainfall, dry bean prices remain within the five-year average in Nairobi, Eldoret, and Kisumu; however, prices are 10 percent below average in Mombasa, driven down by cross-border imports from Tanzania.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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