Key Message Update

Drop in rainfall at the end of the growing season lowers food production prospects

December 2017

December 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Across most of Rwanda, erratic and below-average rainfall since early December is likely to result in below-average harvests of beans and maize, particularly in Kayonza and Kirehe districts in Eastern Province. Although sweet potato production will partially compensate maize and bean production shortfalls, poor households in these areas are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2018. However, overall, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist countrywide.  

  • Staple food prices fell in November ahead of the first Season A harvests, primarily due to the originally more positive outlook for Season A production. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), food prices dropped by three percent compared to the previous month and were two percent lower than a year ago. This has facilitated greater food access, but the seasonal price drops in December and January are expected to be moderated by total Season A production likely being below average. 

  • According to UNHCR, about 700 additional Burundians sought asylum in November. Despite continued violence in the DRC, this has not translated yet into any new asylum seekers in Rwanda. Severe funding shortfalls persist for refugee food assistance, and if WFP does not receive additional funding, it may further cut daily food rations. In the absence of assistance, the more than 56,000 Burundian refugees living in Mahama Camp in Kirehe District would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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