Key Message Update

Favorable rainfall leads to above average harvests

May 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Average to above-average rainfall since mid-April has supported crop growth, without causing flooding and landslides, unlike past seasons. The harvests, which have begun and are expected to peak by mid-June, are likely to be above average across the country. This will be the fourth consecutive season with average to above-average harvests, maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes through November 2019, though some very poor households are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

  • According to the Rwandan National Institute of Statistics, food prices remained relatively stable between March and April 2019, but should start decreasing by the end of May, as the new harvest comes to market.  Food prices are still below five-year averages despite the closure of northern border posts with Uganda in February. The resulting price increases of 15 to 25 percent for Ugandan maize flour, cooking banana, fruits and vegetable oil are encouraging imports from Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa.

  • According to UNHCR, Rwanda currently hosts around 149,000 refugees. In the first four months of 2019, that number increased by about 260 per month on average, most from Burundi. Within the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework, the Government of Rwanda and the World Bank signed a 60-million-dollar loan to support social, economic, and environmental programs for refugees and concerned host communities on May 16, 2019. This latest initiative and existing humanitarian assistance are likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food security outcomes, although some refugees are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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