Key Message Update

Early onset of seasonal rainfall supports Season 2020 A planting

September 2019

September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Planting of 2020 Season A crops is near completion across most of Rwanda, supported by the early onset of seasonal rainfall. Given the forecast for above rainfall from September to December 2019, the December-January harvest will likely be average. This, along with the ongoing average to above-average 2019 Season B harvest, is expected to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through early 2020. However, in drier Eastern districts and areas of the South Province with poor soil fertility, some households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as their food reserves will be low in October-November.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics, urban food prices in August 2019 were 2.7 percent higher than August 2018 and 2.5 percent higher than July 2019. In rural areas where trade flows are weaker, those increases were 4.2 and 4.7 percent, respectively. Although food prices remain lower than the three-year average, these rates of increase are higher than expected. In the event that normal cross-border trade is restored between Uganda and Rwanda, food prices would likely stabilize.

  • The number of refugees living in Rwanda is still estimated at 149,000, about half of whom are from the DRC and half of whom are from Burundi. In addition, Rwanda will soon host 500 refugees and asylum-seekers currently in detention centers in Libya, as a result of a transit mechanism agreed upon by the Government of Rwanda, UNHCR, and the African Union. Given that refugees are gradually being integrated in national social and economic systems, while still receiving cash-based and in-kind assistance, refugees in Rwanda are expected to continue facing No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1!) through at least February 2020.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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