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Remotely Monitored Country
Remote Monitoring Report

Heavy rains and flooding reduce crop production prospects

April 2018

April - May 2018

The highest area classification of the map is Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

June - September 2018

The highest area classification of the map is Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Heavy rains in March-April, over 191 percent of average, caused bean crop losses, landslides, and flooding, particularly in northern, northwestern, Kigali and southeastern areas. Total Season B production is still likely to be average to below average. Food and income access for most poor households is unlikely to change, and the country is expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Some poor households in areas most affected by the rains are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics (NISR), overall staple food prices in rural areas increased in March 2018 by 1.3 percent compared to the previous month. Non-cereal crops (beans, Irish potatoes, legumes) had the largest monthly increase, up by 3.8 percent. Following April’s heavy rains and flooding, key informants have reported that the prices of staple food are rising quickly. By September, staple food prices may return to September 2017 levels, especially for beans.

  • According to UNHCR, as of March 31, Rwanda hosted approximately 174,000 refugees, of whom about 93,000 were Burundians. Approximately two thirds of Burundian refugees live in Mahama Camp in Kirehe District, Eastern Province. WFP provides only about 75 percent of food needs for refugees in camps, but the Government of Rwanda continues to allow refugees to seek work outside the camps to supplement their food needs. As a result, with humanitarian assistance, this population is expected to continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.

ZONE CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES
National
  • Heavy rains in March-April severely affected moisture sensitive crops such as beans, Irish potatoes and nearly all crops planted in marshlands. However, moisture-tolerant crops planted on hillsides, such as cassava, maize, bananas, sweet potatoes, fodder, tea, and coffee benefitted from the rains.
  • In addition to crop losses, landslides and flooding caused several deaths and destroyed houses and roads, especially in northern, northwestern, and southeastern parts of the country.
  • The excessive rains, which are forecast to be above average through May, are likely to significantly decrease the production of beans. Beans are one of the main crops of the season and the main source of protein in Rwanda. Through September, bean prices are likely to significantly increase, as the country is expected to resort to bean imports from Uganda and Tanzania to make up the domestic shortfalls.
  • Those disasters, endemic to Rwanda, should have limited impact on acute food insecurity outcomes as the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugees (MIDIMAR) is expected to continue providing affected populations with food assistance, building materials, and labor opportunities through September.

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2018

Cumulative rainfall in March-April was twice the normal amount across the country. The most affected districts have been Nyabihu and Rubavu in Western Province, Rulindo in Northern, Gasabo in Kigali, as well as Gatsibo and Kirehe in Eastern Province. Though the production of beans is likely to be below average, particularly in these areas, other crops benefitted from the heavy rains, which is likely to keep national production at average to below-average levels in June. Displacement from flooding and landslides could move some of the most vulnerable poor households to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), especially those in Eastern Province, who had below-average Season A production. However, the majority of poor households are expected to remain in None (IPC Phase 1) as food availability and access are not expected to change.

For the rural areas, where the poor mainly reside, NISR reported that overall staple food prices increased by 1.3 percent in March compared to February 2018, with the price of cereals (including maize flour) remaining stable and the price of non-cereal staples, such as beans and Irish potatoes, increasing by 3.8 percent. Season B bean production deficits are expected to be partially filled by imports from Uganda and Tanzania, which are likely to increase prices. As a result, poor households are likely to consume less beans and/or substitute cheaper and less preferred foods, such as sweet potatoes and cassava flour.

The combination of the Government of Rwanda’s expanded social protection programs, the existence of adequate income-earning opportunities (including the demand for labor to repair damaged infrastructures) for market food purchases, and Rwanda’s capacity to import needed food, is expected to maintain good food access through September 2018. In addition, due to the high expected level of residual moisture, prospects for the minor Season C harvest in September look favorable.

Rwanda hosts about 174,000 refugees, of whom about 53 percent are Burundians and 47 percent Congolese. Most refugees live in camps where they mainly rely on humanitarian assistance to cover their food and essential non-food needs. Due to persistent funding gaps, WFP is still only able to cover about 75 percent of refugees’ minimum daily food requirements. To help mitigate that situation, the Government of Rwanda has allowed refugees to seek labor opportunities outside of camps in order to support market food purchases and is gradually integrating refugees in its national safety net program. Despite these initiatives, the refugees are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity outcomes through September.

Overall, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely to persist through September in Rwanda. However, some poor households most affected by the heavy rainfall are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, and the more than 130,000 refugees living in camps are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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