Somalia flag

Presence Country
Key Message Update

Many areas still in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to the start of the Deyr rainy season

September 2018

September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Most northern and central livelihood zones are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the upcoming Deyr rainy season due to enhanced livestock productivity and fodder production, except for Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Sool and Sanaag, which would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) without food assistance. Although humanitarian food assistance enabled Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in September, future funding is unconfirmed and poor households would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January without sustained assistance. However, Xays rainfall and a medium level of livestock births in December to January is expected to contribute to long-term livestock herd recovery.

  • In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, a below-average Gu harvest, reduced income from livestock and milk sales, and limited carryover sorghum stocks are driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes despite the availability of horticultural crops and imported Ethiopian sorghum. Although the Karan harvest is also likely to be below average due to erratic rainfall and stalk-borer infestation, poor households will begin meeting their minimum food needs and will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in November.

  • Riverine livelihood zones in Gedo and Hiiraan remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following Gu flooding that led to below-average harvests and incomes. In contrast, most riverine households in Middle and Lower Juba have improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to low-priced maize supply from neighboring regions, an above-average off-season Gu harvest, and improved labor-to-maize terms of trade. Although Deyr cultivation will begin normally, forecast average to above-average Deyr rainfall is expected to cause significant flooding in Gedo and Hiiraan, disrupting activities and sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most IDP settlements, particularly among pastoralists who became destitute after extreme livestock losses in the 2016/2017 drought and are continuing to have difficulty meeting their minimum food needs. In several IDP camps, food security and livelihood coping outcomes suggest some IDP households may be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5)[1] in the absence of humanitarian food assistance. In Bossaso, seasonal sea tides have disrupted port and trade activities and pushed IDPs into Emergency (IPC Phase 4), which is likely to persist until after October when trade and labor opportunities resume.

     

    [1] According to the IPC, a Famine (IPC Phase 5) has occurred when at least 20 percent of households in a given area have an extreme lack of food, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence, as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), exceeds 30 percent, and mortality, as measured by the Crude Death Rate (CDR), is greater than 2 per 10,000 per day. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is when a household group has an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo