Seasonal Monitor

Little to no rainfall was received across much of Somalia, as is typical in late December

December 23, 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Little to no rainfall was reported across most regions of Somalia during the December 11 and 20 reporting period. In central and northern regions of the country, both remote sensing products and ground information reported no rainfall during the reporting period. The exceptions to this were East Golis Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones of Bari, in which field reports indicated moderate to light rainfall was received in localized areas. In the South, satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2) indicated light rainfall of less than 10 millimeters (mm) was received across most regions, while 10-25 mm were received in many parts of Lower Juba (Figure 1). Compared to the 2003-2017 short-term average, precipitation during the reporting period was climatologically normal for most parts of Somalia, though rainfall in Lower Juba and localized central areas was below average (Figure 2).  

Situation

In the Northwest, both ground reports and satellite-derived imagery indicate all livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions received no rainfall during the December 11-20 reporting period. This reflects climatology for these regions at this time of the year. However, December-January Xeys rainfall is typically received during this time in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal, but no rainfall was received in this livelihood zone between December 11 and 20.

In the Northeast, there were little to no rainfall in most livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and southern Mudug regions during the reporting period according to both RFE2 satellite imagery and ground information. Contrary to remote sensing data, though, key informants reported moderate to light rainfall for one to two days in localized areas of Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Alula, and Bossaso districts of Bari region.

In central regions, dry conditions prevailed in all pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones during the December 11-20 reporting period according to both remote-sensing and ground information. The prevailing dry conditions are climatology normal at this time of year.

In the South, remote sensing data suggests widespread light showers over most regions, though ground reports indicate no rainfall was received across Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, Gedo and Middle Juba. Both satellite-derived data and ground reports indicate moderate to light rainfall was received over much of Lower Juba and parts of Bay. Rain gauge stations recorded zero millimeters in Hudur and Elbarde (Bakool), Beledweyne and Buloburte (Hiiraan), and Sakow (Middle Juba), while stations in Baidoa and Qansahdhere (Bay) recorded 6 mm and 31.2 mm of rainfall, respectively.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates average or above-average vegetation conditions in most areas, although below-average vegetation conditions persist in some central and southern areas (Figure 3). According to the Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast through December 30, most parts of the county should expect little to no rainfall, which is consistent with climatology at the end of December (Figure 4). However, some localized areas in central and southern Somalia are forecast to receive 10-40 mm of rainfall.   

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 31, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somaliathe Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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