Seasonal Monitor

Cumulative April-June Gu 2019 rainfall predominantly below average

July 15, 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

The establishment of the April-June 2019 Gu rains was delayed by two-three weeks across most of Somalia. Although some localized precipitation was reported in some parts of the South and Northwest in April, most of the country did not begin to receive rainfall until early to mid-May. Although moderate to heavy rainfall from mid-May to early June in northern regions and in large parts of central regions resulted in generally near-average cumulative rainfall in these areas, rainfall remained largely below average across most of the South. Little to no rainfall was reported from mid- to late June. According to CHIRPS satellite data and supported by ground information, most of the Northwest and South and parts of central Somalia received 100-300 millimeters of cumulative rainfall (Figure 1). In the Northeast, the coastal Northwest, and much of central Somalia, cumulative rainfall was 25-100 mm. Compared to the long-term mean, rainfall performance was predominantly below average. Rainfall deficits of 10-50 mm are present in the northwest, northeast, and parts of central regions, while 25-100 mm deficits are observed in large parts of the South (Figure 2). However, large parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions and a few pockets in central and southern regions recorded a surplus of 10-50 mm.

Situation

In the Northwest, the full establishment of the Gu was delayed across most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions, though light to moderate rains fell in localized areas in late April. In the last week of April and first week of May, little to no rainfall was received with few exceptions. From mid-May to early June, however, widespread moderate to heavy rains fell across most livelihood zones, which significantly improved rangeland resource availability and livestock body conditions. No precipitation was reported in the remainder of June. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance was mixed, ranging from below average in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed to above average in Togdheer and western Sool and Sanaag.

In the Northeast, the onset of the Gu was significantly delayed across all livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug regions with no precipitation observed throughout April and through the first 10 days of May. The first rains occurred in mid-May with localized light to moderate rainfall reported in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Bari and moderate to heavy rainfall reported in localized areas of Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and Mudug. Moderate to heavy rains continued through early June, then subsided into dry conditions. Overall, Gu seasonal rainfall performance is considered below average.

In central regions, no precipitation was reported across Galgaduud and southern Mudug throughout April, signaling a significant delay in the start of the season. Although moderate to heavy rainfall fell in eastern areas in early May, western areas remained dry. Moderate to heavy rains fell across both regions from mid- to late-May but were highly localized at some points. By June, the rains had largely subsided. Gu seasonal rainfall performance is categorized as below average.    

In the South, the Gu rains were delayed until late April when light to moderate rainfall fell in most regions and above average rainfall fell in large parts of Juba and Gedo. In May, rainfall ranged from light to moderate to heavy, with the most amount of rainfall received in mid-May. Although light to moderate rains were reported in early June, the rains subsided completely by mid-June. Cumulative rainfall was highest in Middle and Lower Juba and lowest in Middle and Lower Shabelle. The Juba and Shabelle river water levels remained largely below average levels despite some fluctuation, and little to no flooding was reported across riverine areas. Overall, Gu seasonal performance was largely poor to below average.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the first 10 days of July shows favorable vegetation conditions in the North while negative anomalies are observed in central and southern regions (Figure 3). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center seven-day rainfall forecast ending July 21st suggests dry conditions across most of the country, signaling the end of the Gu season. However, localized areas in the Juba and Shabelle basins and parts of the Northwest are expected to receive rainfall amounts of up to 30 mm (Figure 4). It is typical that these areas receive some Hagaa rainfall from July to September.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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