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Presence Country
Seasonal Monitor

Flooding has occurred in several areas of Somalia following heavy rainfall

May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

During the last ten days of April, Gu rainfall was average or above average across Somalia. According to rainfall estimates (RFE2), 25 to 75 millimeters of rainfall (mm) across southern, central, and northwestern regions. Localized pockets received 75 to 150 mm (Figure 1). Conversely, less than 10 mm of rainfall were received in most of the northeast according to satellite imagery. In areas that received rainfall, totals were 10 to 150 mm above the short-term mean (STM), while the minimal rainfall in the northeast was climatologically average. Though there were pockets where the rainfall received was 10 to 25 mm below average, namely in parts of Nugaal, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Lower Juba (Figure 2). According to rain gauge station records and ground information, rainfall totals were higher than reported by satellite imagery. Due to heavy rainfall, significant flooding has occurred in the South.

Current Situation

During the last ten days of April, Gu rainfall was average or above average across Somalia. According to rainfall estimates (RFE2), 25 to 75 millimeters of rainfall (mm) across southern, central, and northwestern regions. Localized pockets received 75 to 150 mm (Figure 1). Conversely, less than 10 mm of rainfall were received in most of the northeast according to satellite imagery. In areas that received rainfall, totals were 10 to 150 mm above the short-term mean (STM), while the minimal rainfall in the northeast was climatologically average. Though there were pockets where the rainfall received was 10 to 25 mm below average, namely in parts of Nugaal, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Lower Juba (Figure 2). According to rain gauge station records and ground information, rainfall totals were higher than reported by satellite imagery. Due to heavy rainfall, significant flooding has occurred in the South.

In the Northwest, average to above-average rainfall was received in most livelihood zones of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed during the last 10 days of April. Similarly, moderate to rainfall was also received in Hawd Pastoral and parts of Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zones of Sool region. Relatively lower rainfall totals were received in the livelihood zones of Togdheer and NIP livelihood zone of Sanaag, though total amounts were still climatologically average. In West and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Sanaag, though, rainfall totals were minimal. Light rainfall was reported in localized pockets of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, though most areas remained dry, which is typical in this livelihood zone in April. 

In the Northeast, light rainfall was reported in localized areas of NIP livelihood zone, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Qandala, Bossaso, and Iskushuban, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone of Iskushuban. In Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and northern Mudug, rainfall totals were average to above average, though all other areas of the Northeast remained dry. According to field information, rangeland conditions have improved in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones, but remain very poor across all other livelihood zones of the Northeast.       

In the central regions, rainfall totals during the last ten days of April were lower than rainfall amounts received in mid-April. In Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Abudwaq, Adado, and Dhusamareb, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone of Adado and Dhusamarab, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone of Hobyo, rainfall totals were below average. Though in Cowpea Belt livelihood zone, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone of Elbur, and coastal areas of Harardhere and Elder, heavy rainfall was received. Overall, rainfall is supporting further improvements in pasture and water availability.

In the South, average to above-average rainfall was reported in all livelihood zones during the last ten days of April. According to RFE2 satellite imagery, most areas received between 25 and 100 mm. However, rain gauge data and ground information suggested rainfall totals were well above those reported by RFE2. Rain gauge stations recorded 283 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 118 mm in Beledweyne (Hiran), 119 mm in Buloburte (Hiraan), and 103 in Sakow (Middle Juba). Rainfall totals were lower in Baidoa (Bay), at 18 mm according to rain gauge data. This heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, caused river floods and flash floods in Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer. Flooding has caused crop damage and displaced thousands of households.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for April 21-30 shows favorable vegetation conditions across most of the country (Figure 3), although vegetation conditions continue to be below average in the Northeast. The Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast through May 10 forecasts heavy rainfall ranging from 30 to 125 mm across most of southern and central regions and localized areas of the Northwest, while dry conditions are likely across most of Northeast (Figure 4). Given already high river water levels and the forecast for further heavy rainfall, continued flooding is expected.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 10, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali nongovernmental organizations(NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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