Key Message Update

Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes likely exist despite ongoing harvest

November 2017

November 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Extreme food insecurity persists across the country, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist in most areas despite the ongoing harvest. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are still likely in counties of greatest concern, including Leer, Ayod, Nyirol, and Wau, where some households do not have access to harvests or assistance and are unable to  migrate in search of alternative food sources. There is a continued risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) and large-scale assistance and action to end the conflict are needed urgently to save lives.  

  • Greater Baggari of Wau remains of extreme concern, where Famine (IPC Phase 5) may be ongoing but there is insufficent evidence to confirm or disprove. Extremely high levels of acute malnutrition were noted during the recent lean season among the tens of thousands isolated there since early 2017. There are reports some households in the area did harvest recently, although yields are expected to be insufficient to meet consumption needs beyond one to two months. In late November, humanitarian actors were able to distribute a 15-day ration to 16,700 people in Mboro and Farajallaha. 

  • Conflict continues to limit normal livelihoods in many areas of the country, including Greater Upper Nile and Greater Bahr el Ghazal. In November, armed clashes in Leer, Mayendit, and near Bentiu PoC in Rubkona have disrupted the delivery of humanitarian assistance and trade flows. In Guit, clashes between Government forces and armed opposition forced aid workers to suspend delivery of assistance to nearly 1,700 people in Nimin. In Jonglei, road ambushes in Malou of Bor South disrupted trade flows from Juba. Armed conflict and inter-communcal attacks in western Lakes and Duk of Jonglei disrupted household access to fields and markets, and in Duk led to the loss of life.

  • Similarly, insecurity in Greater Equatoria continues to severely disrupt normal livelihoods. In Kajo-Keji, armed clashes in early November displaced more than 17,300 people. Of those displaced, roughly 2,500 are now displaced in Liwolo payam, while others fled to Morobo, Lainya, and Uganda. Some non-governmental organizations distributing aid to IDPs in Kajo-Keji suspended their operations during the conflict and reported health facilities and assistance were looted. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in this county.  

  • Staple food prices have declined seasonally but remain extremely high compared to both last year and the five-year average. In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Lakes, and parts of Western Equatoria, where the majority of households cultivated, the ongoing harvest has stabilized food prices somewhat and reduced market dependence. However, in all states some households did not plant and remain unable to purchase sufficient food at extremely high prices. Macroeconomic conditions remain extremely poor: the SSP further depreciated on the parallel market from 177.20 SSP/USD in late October to 186.9 SSP/USD in late November.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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