Key Message Update

Food insecurity in northeastern bimodal areas is likely to continue

September 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is likely to persist in most areas of the country, outside the refugee camps, through September. Government of Tanzania restrictions on staple food exports to neighboring countries, coupled with overall favorable Msimu and Masika harvests has kept maize and rice prices approximately 20 and 30 percent lower, respectively, compared to last year. Subsequently, food access for poor households has been sustained through the onset of the lean season in many areas.

  • However, acute food insecurity for poor households in bimodal areas in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions is increasing, with an earlier onset of the lean season in September, following below-average Masika production. Even though there is a decreasing likelihood for a La Niña event, poor, erratic rains at the onset in October in the northeastern lowlands are likely to reduce labor opportunities. With lower incomes, food market purchases will likely be constrained, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2017.  

  • The majority of refugees are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) and nearly 30,000 recent resource-poor arrivals are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) acute food insecurity in the presence of humanitarian assistance. As of September 18, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that nearly 230,000 refugees were in Nyarugusu, Mtendeli, and Nduta camps. In Mtendeli camp in Kakonko District in Kigoma, the refugees represent about 26 percent of the population, so FEWS NET has classified this area as Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance. WFP has indicated that only 62 percent of its USD 18 million food needs from August to January 2016 are resourced. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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