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Remotely Monitored Country
Remote Monitoring Report

Food security improving with Masika and Msimu harvests

June 2017

June - September 2017

Tanzania June 2017 Food Security Projections for June to September

October 2017 - January 2018

Tanzania June 2017 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Msimu and Masika harvests are ongoing and Msimu production is expected to be average in most southern bimodal areas. However, Masika production is likely to be below average in some northeastern and northwestern bimodal areas and parts of central Tanzania. Anticipated below-normal production in these areas is attributed to below average seasonal rains, crop damage from Fall Armyworm, and flooding in northwestern areas.  

  • Food security is improving among poor households in northern bimodal areas during the June/July harvest. However, these poor households have experienced two seasons of below-average production. Most will remain atypically dependent on markets, and high food prices will lower food access. As a result, poor households in these regions are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2018. 

  • According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Tanzania is hosting 315,000 refugees as of June 19, roughly 241,000 of whom are from Burundi. The number of new arrivals from Burundi declined significantly over the past month relative to previous months. Refugees are currently receiving an 80 percent ration of maize and full ration of other commodities. However, WFP faces funding shortfalls and a pipeline break is possible in August. In the absence of assistance, food security among refugees would likely deteriorate from Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

ZONE CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES
Northeastern bimodal areas in parts of Arusha, Kagera, Kilimanjaro, Mara, Mwanza, Pwani, and Tanga
  • March to May Masika rains were up to 40 percent below average in parts of northeastern Tanzania, and below-average production is expected as a result.
  • Below-average Masika production is likely to result in early depletion of household food stocks, and some poor households will face food consumption gaps. Average Msimu production in the southern highlands is likely to support food prices declines in the northeast and northwest, but prices will still remain above average and food access will be lower than normal.
Refugee camps in Kagera and Kigoma
  • Maize and oil rations have been reduced to 80 percent, following funding shortfalls.  However, the influx of refugees has slowed considerably.
  • Funding gaps are expected to persist. While availability of food and labor income have increased during the harvesting period, these sources are minimal and food consumption gaps are anticipated in the event of a pipeline break.
Farmers in parts of Dodoma, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Singida, Simiyu
  • Below-average November to May Msimu rains, particularly, from November to January.
  • Production is expected to be below average. However, the proximity of some regions to surplus-producing areas will likely lead to price declines in local markets. 

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2018

Harvesting of cereals and pulses from the November to May Msimu season has started in central and southern unimodal areas of Tanzania. Although the rainy season started one to two months late, increased rainfall from the end of January through May supported crop development, improving overall production prospects. Near average production is anticipated in the ‘grain basket’ southern highlands of Katavi, Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, and Songea. However, below-average production is likely in parts of Dodoma, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu, and Singida. Poor production is likely in these relatively more drought-prone areas due to a combination of delayed rainfall that caused a reduction in area planted, below-average cumulative rainfall, and some crop losses from Fall Armyworm.

Crops from the March to May Masika season have reached maturity in most bimodal areas, and harvesting has started in some lowland coastal areas in Tanga and Pwani. Production is estimated at 20-40 percent below average in Arusha, Kagera, Kilimanjaro, Mara, Mwanza, Pwani, and Tanga. Although the mid-season projection was for near average production following increased rainfall in April, rains in May were quite poor. For some of these northern bimodal areas, below-average Masika rainfall follows below-average October to December 2016 Vuli rains (Figure 1). This will be the second consecutive poor harvest for these regions. 

Staple food prices are declining seasonally as harvests replenish market stocks. However, prices remain well above last year. In Dar es Salaam, the price of a kilogram of maize was 1,019 Tsh in mid-June, down from 1,222 Tsh in May, but still 41 percent above last year. Prices are relatively higher in bimodal areas than surplus-produce unimodal areas. In bimodal Arusha, a kilogram of maize declined to 1,124 Tsh in mid-June from 1,228 Tsh in May, but is still 148 percent above the same time last year. In Iringa, situated in the surplus-producing southern highlands, the price of a kilogram of maize declined from 1,090 Tsh in May to 707 Tsh in June, but remains 82 percent higher than last year. Prices are projected to continue declining through July, attributed to increased supply from the Masika and Msimu harvests, after which they will increase slightly through January 2018. Overall, staple food prices are expected to remain 25-100 percent above average throughout the outlook period due to below-average production in several neighboring countries, which is increasing regional demand.

In most bimodal areas, poor households have experienced two consecutive seasons of below-average production and are expected to be atypically dependent on markets. However, above-average food prices are reducing household food access and many are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2018. In these regions, though, consumption will be relatively better in June and July, during the harvest. In unimodal areas, most poor households will have average harvests and face relatively lower staple food prices. These areas are expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the outlook period.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Tanzania is hosting 315,000 refugees as of mid-June, about 241,000 of whom are from Burundi. Arrivals from Burundi declined significantly over the past month, with 492 people arriving from May 17 to June 17, compared to 1,947 people from April 17 to May 17. Rations of maize meal and oil have been reduced to 80 percent, but remaining commodities are maintained at 100 percent. It is likely refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) with humanitarian assistance as their key source of food. While the ongoing harvest has increased food supply for refugees who arrived early enough to plant, humanitarian assistance is a key source of food. WFP faces funding shortfalls and food assistance plans, such as WFP’s plan to scale up their cash-based transfer program in Nyarugusu camp from 10,000 to 80,000 refugees, are unlikely to be realized without further funding. A pipeline break is anticipated in August if no additional funding is obtained. In the absence of humanitarian assistance, refugees are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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