Key Message Update

March to May long rains now expected to be below average in bimodal areas

Marzo 2019

Marzo - Mayo 2019

Junio - Septiembre 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • According to the 2018 Short Rains Assessment conducted in February 2019 by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), 1.1 million Kenyans are currently in need of humanitarian food assistance, including an estimated 800,000 in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 300,000 that are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with a high likelihood of deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Areas of greatest concern include Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, and Isiolo, where the proportion of the food insecure population is highest. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist at the area level in most pastoral and marginal agricultural counties.

  • The onset of the March to May long rains has been delayed or below average due to tropical cyclone Idai, which redirected moisture away from the East Africa region. This has impeded the start of planting activities in central, eastern, northeastern, and North Rift regions. Hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures (LST) continue to hasten deterioration of vegetation conditions and depletion of water resources, especially in northwestern, northeastern, and eastern pastoral areas where there has been prolonged, atypical dryness since October. Cumulative rainfall in bimodal areas is now likely to be below average. However, rains are likely to be above average from May through August in unimodal, surplus-producing areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley.

  • Given rapid decline in browse conditions, goat prices in Garissa and Turkana are now expected to decrease to below-average levels until the establishment of the long rains. In pastoral key reference markets in Turkana, maize prices in February remained 18 percent below the five-year average and 24 percent below 2018 prices, moderating declines in livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. However, maize prices were 11 – 12 percent above average in Mandera and Garissa, due to delayed imports from Ethiopia and depleted stocks, respectively, which has lowered the livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. Maize prices in marginal agricultural areas remained low in February, ranging from 20 to 25 percent below the five-year average.

  • In marginal agricultural areas, delayed and below-average long rains are likely to lead to a decrease in agricultural wage labor demand, and crop yields are likely to be at least 25 percent below average. Coupled with currently low household food stocks, more households are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In pastoral areas, accelerated depletion of rangeland resources will cause deterioration in livestock body conditions, lowering productivity and limiting livestock-related income opportunities. Combined with related resource-based conflict, more households are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Should rainfall be significantly below average, the effects of two consecutive below-average rainy seasons could lead to a deterioration in outcomes at the area level beginning in August.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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