Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes expected through September

Julio 2019

Julio - Septiembre 2019

Octubre 2019 - Enero 2020

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • In northern and central pastoral areas, moderate to heavy Gu rainfall in mid-May and early June improved pasture and water resources, leading to improved livestock body conditions and medium to high conceptions. Although livestock have atypically in-migrated from Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone, pasture availability is now expected to sustain normal migration patterns in the July-September Xagaa season. Reduced expenditures on water, increased milk availability, and increased livestock value has slightly improved poor households’ access to food, but moderate to large food gaps remain pervasive. In northwest Northern Inland Pastoral and central-northeast Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones, humanitarian food assistance was significant enough to enable Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes in July. However, due to low livestock holdings and uncertainty that food assistance will continue at planned levels, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most areas in August and September.

  • In southern agropastoral areas, cumulative April-June Gu rainfall was below average and marked by severe deficits in coastal areas of Middle and Lower Shabelle. Preliminary field assessments indicate Gu harvests will be largely below average and it is expected most poor households will have one month or less of food stocks. Poor food availability, reduced income from agricultural labor, and rising cereal prices will drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September in Bay Bakool Low Potential, Sorghum High Potential, and Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zones as well as Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone. Further, an increasing number of poor households are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) from July to September. In Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Hiiraan, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected due to crop failure.

  • In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, poor Gu rainfall performance reduced area planted with Gu/Karan maize and sorghum to an estimated 75 percent of average. A small proportion of maize is expected to be harvested in August, while the majority of the maize and sorghum harvest is expected in December. In Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone, Gu sorghum and grass fodder crop production is below average but better than previously expected, based on FEWS NET and FSNAU’s field observations in July. However, the quantity harvested in August will yet depend on the severity of seasonal flash floods from the July-September Karan rains. Current crop damage from desert locust was observed to be low to none in both agropastoral areas, and most eggs laid by recent swarms are not expected to hatch until the December-January Xeys rains. However, should these eggs hatch earlier during the harvesting period, the damage could be substantial. In both livelihood zones, below-average crop production is expected to sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through December, when own crop consumption and cash crop sales improve food availability and access.  

  • Locally produced cereal prices in surplus-producing areas in the South have atypically increased from June to July. In Baidoa (Bay) reference markets, the price of sorghum reached 8,500 SOS/kg, which is 61, 115, and 31 percent higher than the June 2019, July 2018, and five-year averages, respectively. The price of maize in Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle) markets reached 6,500 SOS/kg, which is 13 and 37 percent above the June 2019 and June 2018 averages but 7 percent below the five-year average. This increase is attributed to significantly below-average Gu production and the fact that farmers and traders are withholding stocks from the markets until August-September, when prices will be higher. In northwestern agropastoral reference markets, white sorghum prices recorded in June were 5 percent below the June 2018 average, but five percent above the five-year average. Cereal prices are generally following seasonal trends in other areas.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

  • USAID Logo
  • USGS Logo
  • USDA Logo
  • NASA Logo
  • NOAA Logo
  • Kilometra Logo
  • Chemonics Logo