Informe especial

Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

23 Enero 2017

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Riesgo de hambruna elevado – la fase 5 no se puede ni confirmar ni invalidar con las pruebas disponibles
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • With the Nigerian petroleum sector in crisis, the agricultural and solid minerals sectors have recently recorded positive growth. This follows strong support from the Government of Nigeria (GoN) and dynamic private sector responses, and encourages a more diversified economy. Therefore, despite the many challenges facing the Nigerian economy, some positive trends emerge.

  • Declining revenues from crude oil sales resulted in a sharp decline in the availability of foreign exchange reserves in 2016 (Figure 1). As a result, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopted a floating exchange rate, quickly narrowing the gap between the official and parallel (Bureau de Change, BDC) exchange rates. The resulting 40 percent reduction in the value of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) led to increasing costs for essential imported items, including food (rice, wheat, sugar, legumes, and edible oils) and non-food items. This, in turn, has reduced purchasing power, especially for poor market-dependent Nigerian households.

  • In an attempt to promote local production, the Nigerian government has adopted various direct and indirect measures to restrict imports, and encourage the consumption of locally produced goods. At present, the net impact of these policies on overall food security is unclear.

  • Locally-produced staple food prices declined seasonally in November and December (Figure 2). However, prices are more than double their 2015 and five year average levels. These trends are driven by high inflation and the continuing depreciation of the NGN. The very high prices of 2016 are believed to have incentivized an expansion in area planted and production, resulting in record high grain production in Nigeria during the 2016/17 production and marketing year.

  • Although agricultural production increased in 2016/17, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on imports from regional and international markets to meet food needs, a trend that is expected to persist in the short and medium term. Furthermore, the depreciation of the NGN vis-à-vis regional currencies (such as the XOF) has led to high regional export demand. This may result in below normal stock levels in Nigeria during the 2017 lean season. The inflationary impacts of the depreciating NGN are stronger than the effects of this year’s supply response, and prices are expected to remain at their very high levels through the current marketing year and lean season.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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