Global Weather Hazards

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall may alleviate dryness in eastern Southern Africa

December 13, 2013 to December 19, 2013

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
NOAA
USGS

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Although local areas of equatorial eastern Africa have received increased rainfall over the past few weeks, poor rainfall performance since the beginning of the October has led to large moisture deficits over central Kenya and southern Somalia. This dryness is likely to negatively impact the development of crops and pastoral conditions, with little opportunity for recovery before the end of the rainy season.

2. During November, below-average rainfall has resulted in growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions over many local areas of west-central Tanzania. However, heavy rains are expected to continue during the next week, which could help to relieve dryness over the region.

3. A prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season and an erratic rainfall distribution during November have resulted in developing dryness across eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique. Moderate to locally heavy rains are forecast over eastern Southern Africa during the next week, which could help to alleviate dryness in the region.

Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards

1. Since the start of the second rainy season, poor rains have led to below-average vegetation conditions across northwestern Dominican Republic. Suppressed rains are forecast during the next outlook period, which could worsen dryness over the region.

2. Rainfall since August has been erratic and below-average across southwestern Dominican Republic and parts of the Ouest department of Haiti. The poorly distributed seasonal rains have worsened ground conditions as supported by strengthening negative NDVI anomalies. With light rain forecast, dryness is expected to continue into the next week.

Central Asia Weather Hazards

Temperatures

Temperatures averaged 3 to 9° C above-normal across Kazakhstan during the first week of December. Near to slightly above-normal temperatures prevailed across the remainder of Central Asia. Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across the region with the largest positive temperature anomalies forecast for Kazakhstan. The highest elevations of northeast Afghanistan/Tajikistan along with northern Kazakhstan are forecast to experience the coldest temperatures (-20° C or lower).

Precipitation

During the past week, widespread rain and snow fell throughout the region with the heaviest amounts (more than 25 mm, liquid equivalent) across parts of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. Due this past week’s widespread wetness, abnormal dryness across Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is likely not warranted. Drier weather is expected during the next week with most locations receiving 10 mm or less precipitation.

About Weather Hazards

The Global Weather Hazards report anticipates severe weather or climate events in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Central Asia. This product provides maps with current weather and climate information; short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week); and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. It does not reflect long range forecasts or food security conditions.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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