Price Watch

June 2018 Price Watch

June 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, markets are sufficiently supplied across much of the region, but at below average levels in several countries due to localized deficits and continuing stock retention by market actors. Market demand is seasonally increasing at above-average levels. Local coarse grain prices are stable or increasingly moderate but remain above average. Prices are expected to remain above average through to the lean season. Below average pasture and fodder availability, as well as persistently reduced export opportunities to Nigeria, continue to affect livestock markets.

  • In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic challenges in Yemen andSouth Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food price trends varied across the region, while prices generally followed seasonal trends in Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia. Atypically stable prices were observed in parts of Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia, supported by subsidies. In Tanzania, prices declined atypically due to abundant national supplies.

  • In Southern Africa, domestic maize supplies continue to tighten with harvests imminent across most of the region. The main maize harvests were already underway in Malawi and Madagascar. Maize prices exhibited mixed trends as the lean season peaked but are below average levels for most of the region except for Madagascar and parts of eastern DRC. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices remain competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia and South Africa) and international markets (from South Africa).

  • In Central America, maize and bean availability began to decrease seasonally in March. Maize prices remain below average in Guatemala, average in Honduras, and above average in Nicaragua. Bean prices remained above average in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In El Salvador, although maize and bean prices remain below average, they increased atypically in recent months due to stock retention from the market by farmers. In Haiti, local maize prices increased while local black bean prices were firm. Supply remains adequate for both local substitutes and imported staples, while rice prices remain at average levels. The Haitian gourde depreciated further against the USD.

  • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intra-regional trade is expected to fill regional wheat deficits. Kazakhstan and Pakistan are expected to have above-average wheat harvests in MY 2017/18. Wheat prices remained stable though are below-average in the region's largest exporter, Kazakhstan.

  • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Soybean prices were firm, rice and wheat price trends were mixed, while maize prices increased. Crude oil prices rose moderately due to declining global petroleum inventories.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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