Key Message Update

Deterioration of food security due to crop losses and high prices of basic grains

September 2019

September 2019

La mayoría del país está en fase 1, con el corredor seco en fases 2 y 3.

October 2019 - January 2020

La mayoría del país está en fase 1, con el corredor seco en fases 2 y 3.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The poorest households located in the eastern dry corridor failed to fill their reserves due to irregular weather that significantly damaged Primera crops. In the most arid areas of the West, households expect partial losses for the harvests that are taking place at the end of the year. Suppressed rainfall during the flowering and fruiting phase affected the growth of the plants, and consequently the yield.

  • Postrera sowing has started in the east and north of the country, favored by a second rainy season that has left enough moisture in the soil. However, given the losses of the Primera cycle, some poor households that lost their investment and seeds did not undertake agricultural activities during this second cycle.

  • The period of high demand for labor begins in October at the national level, with the coffee and sugarcane sector being the main activities. Other activities such as the cultivation of melon, vegetables, fruit trees, will remain in their average ranges; This will allow the poorest households, which have resorted to negative coping strategies such as atypical migration or increased sales of animals, to obtain income to acquire food during the upcoming months.

  • Crop losses among the poorest households will lead to premature market dependence, as well as the accelerated use of newly received income. The price of maize remains above average, and the poorest households in the dry corridor will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while those who were able to harvest will be classified in Stress (Phase 2, CIF) during the last months of this outlook.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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