Key Message Update

The start of the 2018 harvest marginally improves household food security

May 2018

April - May 2018

Most likely food security outcomes for April-May

June - September 2018

Most likely food security outcomes for June-September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Harvesting activities have started in most countries in the region. For areas that experienced poorly distributed rains and drought conditions the harvest will produce enough maize to consume for 1-2 months, so it is only expected to marginally improve food security at the household level. In contrast, areas where the increased February and March rains improved the crop situation, staple supplies from the 2018 harvest are expected to improve the food security situation through September.

  • As a result of the ongoing harvest, most areas across the region are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the exception of parts of southwestern and eastern Madagascar; central Mozambique, where households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the drought conditions experienced in December and January. Additionally, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to have more areas than any other country in the region experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are mainly in the conflict affected Kasai, Tanganyika, and Ituri provinces, where households were unable to engage in meaningful farming activities. After May, southern parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe are projected to face earlier than usual food consumption gaps and will mostly experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

  • Staple prices across the region are mostly stable and below the previous year and the five-year average. However, in some areas including parts of Malawi and Madagascar, maize grain prices decreased slightly because of reduced demand on the market since most households at this point are relying on own production. Given the below-normal maize yields anticipated this year, food prices are expected to start to increase earlier than normal since farming households are likely to start market purchases for food earlier than normal.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo