Key Message Update

Food security outcomes marginally improve with the harvest across the region

May 2019

April - May 2019

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is present in areas of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, DRC, and Lesotho. Humanitarian assistance is mitigating outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!)  and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, southern areas of Madagascar, and Kasia region of DRC. The rest of the region is anticipated to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

June - September 2019

Food security outcomes are anticipated to improve temporarily with the harvest in areas of DRC, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is most likely.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite the start of the harvest; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is present in areas of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, DRC, and Lesotho. Humanitarian assistance is mitigating outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!)  and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, southern areas of Madagascar, and Kasia region of DRC. Food security outcomes are anticipated to improve temporarily with the harvest in areas of DRC, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is most likely. The rest of the region is anticipated to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

  • Tropical Cyclone Kenneth hit the northern coast of Mozambique on April 25 with sustained winds of 155 kilometers/hour or higher. Heavy rainfall and associated flooding affected over 375,000 people. Many poor households in the affected areas lost their livelihoods and harvest for the 2019/20 season due to flooding. Humanitarian response is ongoing in affected areas and many poor households are anticipated to need humanitarian assistance through the end of the 2019/20 consumption year. Impacts on food security outcomes due to Tropical Cyclone Kenneth and associated flooding will be updated in Mozambique’s country specific analysis.

  • Staple food prices typically decrease with the harvest as household start consuming own foods; however, maize grain prices in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho continue increasing. In Zimbabwe, this is the result of the deterioration of the macroeconomy and the poor harvest.  In areas of Mozambique and Zimbabwe affected by Tropical Cyclone Idai, staple food prices are expected to remain above average. Food prices in Lesotho, especially in Maseru market have been increasing since January due to the anticipated poor harvest in South Africa. Rice prices in Madagascar stabilized or decreased in April compared to March.

  • Conflict and economic challenges continue to drive acute food insecurity in DRC and Zimbabwe. In DRC, conflict continues to manifest differently across the country with some improvements in the security situation facilitating the return of some households in Kasai, South-Kivu, Tanganyika, and Maniema Provinces. However, in areas affected by Ebola, repeated attacks on treatment centers hampers efforts to bring the outbreak under control. In Zimbabwe, the volatile macroeconomic situation continues to deteriorate with increasing fuel prices, staple food prices, and foreign exchange shortages further weakening household access to food and other basic needs.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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