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Remotely Monitored Country
Remote Monitoring Report

Food assistance will reduce acute food security to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) level in the north of Burkina Faso

June 2018

June - September 2018

Resultats de la securite alimentaire estimes de juin a septembre 2018 est Stress (Phase 2! de l'IPC)

October 2018 - January 2019

Resultats de la securite alimentaire estimes d'octobre 2018 a janvier 2019 est Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC)

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • With humanitarian assistance not due to begin until July, poor households in livelihood zones 5, 7 and 8 are struggling to maintain their consumption levels and are vulnerable to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity.

  • Food availability on the markets is moderate, but due to high prices and deteriorating terms of trade, households are beginning to consume more maize – a less preferred food.

  • In these zones, distributions of free food and money are planned between July and September, which will reach between 24 and 37 percent of the population, meeting more than 90 percent of their needs. This will reduce the food insecurity situation in the area to Stressed ! (IPC Phase 2).

ZONE

CURRENT ANOMALIES

PROJECTED ANOMALIES

National

  • Prices for staple cereals are above the five-year average: 16 percent for maize, 26 percent for millet and 21 percent for sorghum.
  • A season characterized by long to average dry periods, with a late to normal end. These dry periods may favor the development of armyworm, already reported in the south and west of the country.
  • Cereal prices will remain above the five-year average due to ongoing institutional demand and higher household demand.

Livelihood zones 5,

7 and 8

  • Main markets have average cereal supplies but above-average prices, with deteriorating terms of trade. Livestock terms of trade are also deteriorating, despite prices for small ruminants being above the five-year average.
  • The security situation remains worrying, particularly in the Soum and Oudalan provinces, where frequent jihadist threats have led to a ban on motorized traffic between the hours of 18:00 and 06:00 in the towns bordering Mali and Niger.
  • The continued threat of terrorism is likely to increase the number of internally displaced persons, which is currently estimated at 24,500.
  • Crops will be exposed to pests (grain-eating birds, locusts), which are recurrent in livelihood zones 7 and 8 and mainly strike between September and October.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2019

Since April, poor households in livelihood zones 5, 7 and 8 have been depending on markets more than usual. Concerned about exhausting their livelihood assets, households have developed crisis strategies, reducing their meals from two to just one per day. In addition, more households than usual have started to use wild products (desert date, Cassia tora and Leptadenia leaves).

Although markets have an average cereal supply level thanks to maize imports from coastal countries (Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana), high prices for staple cereals such as millet and sorghum are forcing households to change their eating habits and use maize, as a cheaper, more readily available alternative. In the Gorom-Gorom, Djibo and Dori markets, the price of millet (which is a staple cereal) is 15 to 26 percent higher than average. In the Kaya, Kongoussi, Bogandé and Boussé markets, the price of sorghum is 13 to 36 percent higher than average. In contrast, although the price of maize is 16 percent above average in these markets, it is still 10 and 33 percent cheaper than sorghum and millet, respectively.

As a result, households are still relying on the sale of their animals and income from gold mining to buy food. The supply of small ruminants remains almost the same and the prices of healthy rams and goats are 23 and 20 percent above the five-year average, respectively. Nevertheless, due to high staple cereal prices, terms of trade for livestock and cereal are lower than usual, by approximately 5 percent in livelihood zone 5, 22 percent in livelihood zone 7 and 40 percent in livelihood zone 8. However, recent evaluations by the Systeme d’Alerte Precoce (SAP) and its partners covering all regions in Burkina Faso in May found no unusual livestock mortality or atypical sales of breeding females.

In accordance with its response plan, the government has started to distribute food (3,500 tons) to the 92,000 people identified as being in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), based on the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) results. It is also mobilizing 17,850 tons of cereal for sale at a social price in 89 towns between July and September. Similarly, partners have planned to distribute food (WFP) and money (WFP, FAO and NGOs) from June to September. These activities, which will be strengthened from July once targets are met, will reach 37, 26 and 24 percent of populations in livelihood zones 8, 7, and 5 respectively, and will cover 92, 176, and 165 percent of poor households’ needs, respectively. In relation to populations identified as being in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation or worse under the Cadre Harmonisé, coverage is 239 percent in livelihood zone 8, 203 percent in livelihood zone 7, and 206 percent in livelihood zone 5. Out of a total of 352 towns, most interventions target the 89 towns that the SAP has identified as being at risk of food insecurity due to agroclimatic factors. However, other vulnerability factors, including stock depletion, rising staple food prices and deteriorating terms of trade, similarly affect households in the same socioeconomic category in a livelihood zone.

Given the expected coverage level of needs, households benefiting from these activities will no longer be forced to use all of their assets or to adopt irreversible strategies to access food. The availability of forest products (shea, grapes) will also bolster their food supplies, especially for households in livelihood zone 5 and in the southern part of the country.

Poor households in livelihood zones 5, 7 and 8 are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level acute food insecurity will therefore see their situation improve as a result of these activities. However, due to pressures on livelihoods, they will remain at the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) level until the first cowpea and maize harvests in September.

According to seasonal forecasts, a late to normal end to the rainy season will ensure timely access to new crops from October onward, and the dry-season activities will begin as normal from November, putting the country at a Minimal (IPC Phase 1) level of food insecurity until the end of the scenario period in January 2019.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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