Remote Monitoring Report

For the third consecutive season conflict will negatively affect agricultural production in the North-West and South-West

June 2019

June - September 2019

Résultats de la sécurité alimentaire estimés en Juin-septembre 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

Résultats de la sécurité alimentaire estimés en octobre 2019-janvier 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Livelihoods continue to deteriorate as conflict continues in the South-West and North-West regions. The conflict also limits access to fields and labor opportunities and together with high food prices, has led to further deterioration in household purchasing power. As a result, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and poor households are most likely to continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2020.

  • In the Far North region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected to persist for IDPs and poor host households through January 2020 owing to the gradual depletion of stocks between June and August and continued looting and destruction of property by Boko Haram. The conflict is adversely affecting livelihoods in areas of Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga departments.

  • In the Far North region, the increase number of IDPs returns, partner support and good rainfall prospects will most likely lead to favorable yields. In the North-West and South-West regions, on the other hand, food and export production are expected to be below average owing to producers’ limited access to fields, rising input and labor costs and series of stoppages that halt work on plantations.

ZONE

CURRENT ANOMALIES

PROJECTED ANOMALIES

National

  • Overall, almost 792,000 IDPs in the Far North, North-West and South-West regions, and 379,000 Nigerian (in the Extrême-Nord region)  and Central African refugees (in the Est, Nord and Adamaoua regions), according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, April 2019.
  • Despite security efforts, Boko Haram will most likely continue to threaten and limit the mass return of IDPs and refugees. Moreover, the security situation in the North-West and South-West regions will continue to be cause for concern as fighting continues.
Far-North
  • Above-average food supply at local markets and cereal prices down by around 23 percent for sorghum and 17 percent for maize compared to the five-year average.
  • Persistent incursions by Boko Haram resulting in localized losses of household property.
  • Return of IDPs motivated mainly by agricultural activities and improved security in their villages of origin.
  • Changes in basic cereal prices following the seasonal trend, with levels below the five-year average thanks to typical household demand and good market availability.
North-West and South-West
  • Violence affecting both the IDPs who are sometimes tempted to return to their villages of origin deemed safer (237,000 returnees according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)) and the population as a whole, with new cases of IDPs.
  • Household access to agriculture fields are limited because of roadblocks and threats. This, together with the illegal taxes imposed by armed groups, limits supplies to urban centers and hinders assistance.
  • Displacement and limited access to fields will negatively affect agricultural activities and lead to a decline in food production.
  • Sustained deterioration in household access to food, particularly in urban centers, as a result of high prices, and also in livelihoods because of falling incomes and job losses on farms and in the agro-food industry.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2020

Far-North Region

The security situation is improving, but incursions by Boko Haram, particularly in the departments of Mayo-Tsanaga, Mayo-Sava, and Logone-et-Chari continue. At the beginning of the lean season, household market demand is typical since most households still have food stocks from the previous season and are not heavily dependent on markets for food. Basic food prices are lower than last year’s prices and the five-year average. From 2017 to 2019 as the security situation improved, there were around the region recorded around 74,000 returnees and 54.000 newly displaced persons.

Livestock exports to Nigeria from the Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga departments resumed, but remain limited. The recent reopening of the Amchide-Mora corridor is likely to stimulate trade with Nigeria, the main export market for livestock, onions and smoked fish. Unlike last year, when farmers were forced to sell their animals, this year they sell them at prices 15 to 20 percent higher. Reports of cases of Gourme, an equine epidemic in west African Sahel countries, in the region have forced livestock services to adopt measures to contain the disease by banning equine animals from entering livestock markets.

Monsoon activity increased in the second half of May, bringing rains favorable to seedlings, except in the department of Logone-et-Chari. Total rainfall in mid-June is above average, contributing to good emergence of sorghum. As poor household food stocks starts to depleted, market dependency will typically increase through August. Livelihoods remain constrained as a result of Boko Haram’s looting and destruction of granaries in several locations in the departments of Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga. Even with the new harvests starting in September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely in IDPs and poor host households until January in these departments.

North-West and South-West Regions

Conflict continues in the North-West and South-West region with further killings, forced displacement of civilians and security incidents involving kidnapping; roadblocks; the destruction of markets in Oshie, Tad, Njikwa, Nkun and Bamenda; and houses and food stores being set on fire. Separatists’ imposition of dead days, curfews and other administrative measures has had a negative impact urban market supply and reduced flows between Douala and Nigeria.

Overall, basic food prices in urban markets are higher than last year’s prices by 25 percent higher for imported rice, around 33 percent higher for maize and beans, 10 percent higher for palm oil, and 17 percent higher for potatoes. On the other hand, producers in rural areas have difficulty accessing markets to sell their products, which has led to a fall in prices in rural markets due to the above-average supply. For example, in the local markets of Ndop, Wum, Fundong, Kumbo and Nkambe, maize prices fell by 13 to 22 percent compared to last year. Insecurity also affects the food and export sectors. The decrease supply of quality cocoa and coffee decreased, resulting in lower prices in these products. In addition to the negative impact of the fall in global prices, the producer price per kilogram of coffee has fallen by around 12 percent, and of cocoa by 11 to 27 percent compared to the official prices. To overcome slow, difficult processing, some rice producers sell paddy rice to traders in the West region who process it and resell it in the North-West and South-West regions. Similarly, in accessible areas, palm seeds are sent to Douala for processing.

The rainy season started in April and enabled the successful planting of crops including beans, potatoes, maize and yams. Wherever possible, IDPs returned to their villages of origin to engage in agricultural activities. Despite this, upcoming harvests are expected to be smaller than pre-crisis harvests. As a result of conflict, some large holdings have not been cultivated or maintained. Furthermore, there is little local labor supply for clearing and weeding operations.

In calmer rural areas, access to new products and lower basic food prices are helping non-displaced households access food. The maize harvest in July and August is most likely increase the food supply in these regions. However, declining incomes have a negative impacted livelihoods. In urban areas, poor households are increasing their consumption of less preferred foods, such as legumes (groundnuts, soya) and vegetables (cabbage, okra, bitter leaves (ndoleh)) to substitute animal products (meat, fish, milk and eggs). Locally produced palm oil is replacing industrial oil. As a result, IDPs and poor host households in inaccessible areas and disadvantaged urban households will face acute Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the scenario period due to the continued decline in purchasing power, persistently high prices with inadequate market supply, and reduced access to fields.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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