Key Message Update

Food assistance mitigating worse outcomes for displaced population

May 2019

May 2019

June - September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Conflict incidents perpetrated by armed groups and farmer-transhumant conflict continued in May, particularly in the center and northwest of the country. Coupled with depleted household food stocks and above-average staple food prices in some areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes remain widespread in conflict-affected prefectures. In Haut-Mbomou, for example, cassava and maize prices in April were 57 percent above the April 2018 average in Zemio markets and 184 percent above the April 2018 average in Obo markets, respectively. In prefectures where security conditions have improved, however, trade flows from Cameroon and the DRC have increased despite the ongoing rainy season, which has mitigated food price increases. Relatively normal food access is driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in these areas.

  • According to new information on humanitarian assistance delivery provided by WFP, at least 50 percent of the population in IDP sites are receiving 20-day rations. During the ongoing lean season, most IDP households are currently able to meet the remainder of their minimum food needs through wild foods and income earned from casual labor and petty trade, and they are most likely Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). However, in Haute-Kotto, Haut-Mbomou, and Mbomou, where 80-90 percent of the population lives in IDP camps and insecurity has eroded livelihood coping strategies, newly available information suggests IDPs still face at least slight food consumption gaps while relying heavily on humanitarian food assistance. In these areas Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are likely. These outcomes are expected to persist through October, as planned and likely food assistance during this time is anticipated to continue mitigating more severe outcomes, although access and funding constraints remain a concern.

  • In April and May, monthly rainfall totals in the central and western parts of the country have generally been 25 to 50 mm below average. This led to delays in planting and delayed the regeneration of pastures, which extended the transhumant stay in the south and increased the risk of conflict between farmers and herders. However, the rainfall forecast indicates average to above-average accumulation between June and September, which is expected to support crop maturation. Field reports suggest some IDPs are returning home to plant and development partners report successful seed distribution programs, which suggest an increase in agricultural production compared to 2018 is likely.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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