Remote Monitoring Report

High risk of a large-scale humanitarian crisis with the escalation in the civil conflict

August 2017

August - September 2017

Central African Republic August 2017 Food Security Projections for August to September

October 2017 - January 2018

Central African Republic August 2017 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ethnic violence is escalating and armed militia groups are targeting civilian populations as well as humanitarian workers and U.N. peacekeepers. With the new surge in violence, high-level United Nations (UN) officials are talking about a risk of genocide.

  • The instability is disrupting normal livelihood strategies and hindering humanitarian operations. There are 100,000 new IDPs in the northwest, the southwest, the southeast, and the central part of the country (in Ouham Pende, Nana Mambéré, Basse Kotto, Mbomou, Haut Mbomou, and Haute Kotto). With these new displacements, OCHA estimates as of July 31st put the number of internally displaced persons at 600,000.

  • In view of the livelihood conditions of displaced or poor resident populations, the food security and nutritional situation is a continuing source of concern. Acute food insecurity will remain at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels through January 2018, mainly in northwestern, southwestern, southeastern, and central areas of the country (Ouham Pende, Nana Mambéré, Basse Kotto, Mbomou, Haut Mbomou, and Haute Kotto).

AREA

CURRENT ANOMALIES

        PROJECTED ANOMALIES

Conflict areas

 

  • Sharp rise in the prices of imported foods and livestock
  • Limited access to fields and seeds, fewer employment opportunities, and lack of access to animal traction
  • Atypical decline in household food stocks  
  • Below-average incomes
  • Continuing displacements due to the ongoing conflict
  • Lower supplies on markets in conflict areas
  • Steady rise in the prices of imported foods
  • Smaller areas planted in crops and less crop production for 2017/2018 and income from farm labor

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2018

The pace of life in the Central African Republic is dictated by the new surge in violence since July 2017, with attacks on Displaced Populations settlement sites and U.N. peacekeeping forces, abductions, thefts, looting, confiscations of property, and the burning of homes. This violence has caused the death of forty-five people, including two Moroccan soldiers and six Red Cross volunteers. It has triggered new population movements involving an estimated 100,000 people, bringing the total number of Displaced Populations in the northwest, the southwest, the southeast, and the central part of the country (Ouham Pende, Nana Mambéré, Basse Kotto, Mbomou, Haut Mbomou, and Haute Kotto) to 600,000 according to the latest OCHA estimates as of July 31, 2017. Continued humanitarian assistance is a must to enable households in these areas to meet their needs.

On a different note, the growing season is underway, with average to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall helping to promote good crop growth and development. This also bodes well for upcoming harvests of maize and groundnut crops, which will bolster household food availability and reduce the vulnerability of households in the southern part of the country. However, ongoing security threats continue to disrupt farming activities and curtail access to farmland, reducing income from wage labor.

The below-average levels of income from other income-generating activities such as the sale of wild plant products, livestock, and cash crops like coffee and cocoa and temporary low-paying jobs are preventing households from meeting their needs.

The new developments in the civil conflict are further disrupting major livelihoods and the smooth operation of markets and limiting access by humanitarian workers to displaced, returning, and host households in the northwest, the southeast, and the central part of the country (in Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouham Pende, Haute Kotto, Basse Kotto, and Nana Mambéré). A large part of these households will continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through at least January 2018, facing food consumption gaps and a high risk of deteriorating epidemiological conditions with the outbreaks of malaria and diarrheal diseases during the rainy season. Par ailleurs, la campagne agricole est en cours avec des cumuls de pluies moyens à excédentaires favorables pour le bon développement des cultures. Cela est aussi favorable pour les récoltes de maïs et d’arachide qui renforceront la disponibilité alimentaire des ménages et réduiront leur vulnérabilité au sud du pays. Toutefois, les activités agricoles et l’accès aux champs restent perturbés par l’insécurité persistante, réduisant les revenus provenant de la main d’œuvre.

Les autres activités génératrices de revenu telles que la vente des produits de la cueillette, la vente d’animaux, la vente des cultures de rente comme le café et le cacao et les petits travaux temporaires procurent des revenus inférieurs à la moyenne ne permettant aux ménages de satisfaire leurs besoins.

Les nouveaux développements du conflit civil perturbent davantage les principaux moyens de subsistance, le bon fonctionnement des marchés et l'accès humanitaire pour les ménages déplacés, retournés et hôtes du nord-ouest, sud-est et centre (Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouham Pende, Haute Kotto, Basse Kotto, Nana Mambéré). L’insécurité alimentaire de Crise (Phase 3 de l’IPC) va continuer à affecter une grande proportion de ces ménages au moins jusqu’en janvier 2018 avec des déficits de consommation et un risque élevé d’aggravation de la situation épidémiologique en lien avec le paludisme et la diarrhée en période hivernale. 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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