Key Message Update

Despite the start of the lean season, there is only a slow increase in market demand

June 2019

May 2019

Most of the region in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in eastern Niger and northeast Nigeria, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Cameroon, CAR, northwest Chad, southwest Niger, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in northeast Nigeria

June - September 2019

Most of the region in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in eastern Niger, eastern Mali, and northeast Nigeria, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Cameroon, CAR, northwest Chad, southwest Niger, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in northeast Nigeria

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The 2019 rainfall forecasts for the region indicate higher than average rainfall in the Central and Eastern Sahel region. However, they are likely to be average to below-average in the coastal zone of the Gulf of Guinea countries, along the Atlantic seaboard extending from Mauritania to Liberia and around Lake Chad. The AGRHYMET Centre expects a late end to this rainy season in all Sahelian and Sudanese areas, except on the Atlantic coast from southern Mauritania to Liberia where it will end normally.

  • Agricultural land preparation continues as usual in Sudano-Sahelian areas. The pastoral lean season that began early in parts of Mauritania, Senegal and the northern areas of the pastoral zone in Mali, continues although drinking water is beginning to be available. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the greater Lake Chad basin, civil insecurity continues to have a negative impact on livestock movements.

  • Markets remain well supplied with staple foods while demand is experiencing a slight seasonal increase, but well below its usual increase due to large stocks and reduced institutional purchases. Prices remain stable or slightly higher than seasonally normal but remain below last year and the five-year average in most countries. However, they remain atypically high in conflict areas and in the Tibesti region of Chad. Also, the price of rice remains above average in coastal countries due to the depreciation of their currencies and inflation. In the next few months, demand will experience a seasonal increase, but prices will not exceed last year's levels; they will remain near average.

  • Most areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2019. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will affect poor households in southern Chad, the Tahoua region, and southern Tillabéry in Niger, rice growing areas in the Niger Delta and the Timbuktu River Valley in Gao, Mali between June and September due to poor harvests in 2018/19. Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) affects host and internally displaced households in northern Burkina Faso, poor households in southern Mopti and Gao in Mali and the Diffa region of Niger due to low incomes, caused in part by insecurity that disrupts markets as well as the early exhaustion of household stocks in some areas.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level of food insecurity will continue to affect the Tibesti region, which has had its border closed with Libya, and the Lake Chad region in Chad, the Tillabéry region in Niger, and in CAR and Cameroon until September 2019 due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and remain food insecure. Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity is continuing in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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