Key Message Update

Probable improvement of the food security situation beginning in October except in the Lake Chad Basin

September 2017

August - September 2017

October 2017 - January 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite increased food aid in northeast Nigeria, the area continue to record the highest levels of food insecurity in the region. The many displaced populations are heavily dependent on food assistance. Also, food availability and access to markets in reduced and households face high food prices. For example, many populations in Yobe, Adamawa, and particularly Borno State are still affected by acute food insecurity in line with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Civilian populations still in the inaccessible areas of Borno State regmain at high risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

  • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity affect poor households in the western agropastoral area of Mauritania due to continuing shortfalls in livelihood protection over the past few years, in Mali in in the rice and pastoral regions of Gao and Timbuktu and in parts of the Niger Delta and Western Sahel, until September due to a longer than usual lean season and reduced market access. 

  • The persistence of the security crisis in the Lake Chad Basin continue to disrupt main livelihoods and the normal functioning of markets, keeping the Lake Chad region of Chad Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) and the Diffa region of Niger in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until at least January 2018. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity also affect poor households in the northern regions of Wadi Fira and Geura and south of the Kanem and BEG in Chad due to depletion of stocks, an early and harsh lean season, and declining purchasing power. 

  • Harvests began in July in the coastal countries and crops are available in local markets and supply the Sahelian markets for some products. In these markets, supplies remain sufficient to satisfy demand through the marketing of commercial stocks, stimulated by the ease of the agricultural season and the regularity of imports. However, in the Lake Chad Basin, flows remain disrupted by civil insecurity, resulting in price increases in the Maradi and Zinder regions above the average of 25 percent. In Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira keeps prices above the average, particularly in conflict zones. 

  • Seasonal progress is satisfactory in the region according to the PREGEC meeting held in Conakry in September 2017. Harvests in 2017/18 may be above average for cereals (9-20 percent), tubers (3-9 percent) and legumes. Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) infestations in Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire and the Gambia appear to be under control and damage is limited. The food security situation will improve slightly from October onwards with harvests that will allow household stocks to be rebuilt. Food prices will experience their seasonal decline, except in Nigeria. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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