Key Message Update

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity resulting from ongoing average harvests in the country

November 2017

November 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Overall average harvests are underway across the country. The approximately 31 percent above average rise in cereal production predicts an average to good availability of cereals during the 2017/2018 food year in the country despite pockets of significant decline in some areas. As a result, the majority of households in the country currently face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

  • Market supply of cereals is average throughout the country and is improving with the ongoing harvests. The availability of own production and the seasonal decline in cereal prices, although above the five-year average, and the near-average terms of trade in livestock / cereals favor average household access to food.

  • Current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity is expected to deteriorate beginning in March due to early depletion of stocks and expected higher cereal prices in the Western Sahel, the Inner Niger Delta. and in the pastoral areas of Timbuktu and Gao; This will lead poor households to adopt early coping strategies and therefore will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

  • Early migration of livestock herds to grazing areas in the Western Sahel and along the Niger River may create overgrazing that will adversely affect livestock production and pastoral incomes for households in the Western Sahel and Gourma of northern regions. Declining pastoral income will limit pastoralists' access to markets.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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