Food Security Outlook Update

Satisfying progress of the season after a delayed start

August 2019

August - September 2019

La plupart du pays est en Phase 1 sauf un bande de Phase 2 aux centre du pays et un zone de nord Tillabery en Phase 3 entre juin et septembre 2019.

October 2019 - January 2020

La plupart du pays est en Phase 1 sauf un zone de nord Tillabery en Phase 3 et un zone de Diffa en Phase 2! entre octobre 2019 et janvier 2020.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In the Diffa, Tillabéry and Tahoua regions, the security crisis continues to cause further internal displacement and disruption to the main sources of food and income. This situation places poor households in Diffa in Stressed acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2!) thanks to humanitarian aid and poor households in Northern Tillabéry in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • Elsewhere, the agricultural season started late, but the crops planted have been growing under favorable conditions in July and August. Accompanied by the good levels of household stocks and the regular supply of markets, this is ensuring Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) that will continue until at least January 2020.

  • The markets are well supplied thanks to good cereal flows, except in the Diffa region and in the north of the Tillabéry and Tahoua regions, where insecurity is continuing to disrupt market operations. Cereal prices remain generally stable or lower than last year and are close to the seasonal average.

  • The pastoral zone has insufficient natural pastureland for livestock due to the late onset of precipitation. This situation has extended the lean season and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity among poor households. However, with regular rains and the emergence of vegetation, this will change to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from September 2019 until January 2020.

CURRENT SITUATION

The rainfall situation has improved since July, following a run of dry periods between May and June 2019. The overall reduction in cumulative seasonal rainfall at the beginning of August compared with the ten-year average reflects this situation (Figure 1). Following the onset of rains, sowing delays of between 20 and 30 days compared with the average date have been observed, especially in the northern bands of the Zinder region and in the Diffa, Tahoua and Tillabéry regions. There is a crop water deficit in the majority of the country's agricultural zone (Figure 2).

However, the current good weather conditions for cereal and cash crops, which could continue until the end of October/November (according to the latest seasonal forecasts), will allow the crops to catch up and average harvests to be made.

In terms of pasture, the overall situation is characterized by tentative replenishment of pastureland and low-level filling of water points due to delayed rainfall in the pastoral zone. However, feed supplements are enabling livestock to be kept in acceptable physical condition. Milk production and market value are gradually recovering.

Markets are regularly and satisfactorily supplied by traders and establishments selling at moderate prices. Prices have remained generally stable. In July 2019, they showed levels comparable to those for the October to December 2018 period and were in line with the average trend for that period. However, moderate increases to the five-year average for millet are observed as a result of disrupted flows linked to attacks by armed groups in the Diffa and Tillabéry regions.

The security situation continues to deteriorate along the border with Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali and within the Diffa, Tillabéry and Tahoua regions, where population displacements are observed. The loss of livelihoods in these areas has made these displaced persons dependent on food assistance. A safe humanitarian space in Diffa ensures that the necessary food assistance reaches displaced persons. However, in Tillabéry region, internally displaced persons rarely receive food assistance because of security restrictions that are limiting humanitarian assistance. They live off community solidarity in host households and often earn an income through the sale of labor, handicrafts, timber and straw.

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

The most likely FEWS NET assumptions for the period June 2019 to January 2020 have not changed.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2020

Climate forecasts expect rainfall to continue until November. Sowing that is carried out on time or slightly delayed should benefit from water conditions that will allow growth cycles to complete properly and ensure overall average agricultural production that will enable households to meet their food needs without assistance and without recourse to negative coping strategies. They will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until at least January 2020. The same situation will be observed in the pastoral zone, where improved pastoral conditions will become more widespread and households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from mid-September to the end of January.

Pockets in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity will continue to be observed in the Diffa region thanks to food assistance for people made vulnerable by the conflict. Areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in September 2019 and until January 2020 will be observed in the northern part of the Tillabéry region as a result of security conditions unfavorable to livelihood activities and humanitarian assistance.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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