Key Message Update

Persisting conflict in the northeast continues to drive severe food insecurity

November 2017

November 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Persistent Boko Haram conflict in the northeast during several years has led to extensive population displacement, very limited cultivation of staple foods, and major disruption to typical livelihoods activities. The response of humanitarian agencies to mitigate severe food insecurity has also been restricted by the poor security environment. The majority of the population in the area continues to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, with an increased risk of high levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality. Areas that remain inaccessible are facing an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

  • An increase in attacks and conflict events in November due to the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, particularly in Borno State and parts of Adamawa State, has caused additional population displacement, substantial casualties, and restricted humanitarian access. In November, insurgents carried out suicide attacks in Mubi and Madagali towns (Adamawa State), and invaded Magumeri town in Borno State. 

  • The recent IOM-DTM Round XIX report conducted in September 2017 revealed that the estimated number of IDPs in Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe States was 1,713,771 people, representing a decline of three percent relative to the previous Round XVIII in August 2017. Approximately 85 percent of the displaced reside in Borno State, the epicenter of the insurgency, while less than five percent are outside of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. Adamawa State recorded the highest returnee population relative to August data, with nearly 670,000 people returning, while Borno and Yobe States also noted an increase in the rate of return, by 7 and 3 percent respectively.

  • The IOM-DTM reports for January to September 2017 (Rounds XIV to XIX) indicate that food assistance remains a priority need for displaced households, with approximately 70 percent of the displaced reporting that food needs are the top assistance priority. The same reports indicate a consistent decrease in the IDP population across the six northeastern states during the period, with the exception of a slight increase in May.

  • Main season harvests have been concluded across the country. Aggregate production of major cereals (maize, millet, rice, and sorghum) increased by 9 percent compared to last year, and by 12 percent compared to the five-year average. Rice production was 23 percent above average, while maize production was 12 percent above average. Millet and sorghum production remained near-average. Above-average main season harvests have increased food availability and access for most households outside the northeast region, leading to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in most areas.

  • Food prices have begun to decline from their highly elevated prices, due to the combined impact of main season harvests, improving macroeconomic indicators, declining inflation rates, and the stabilization of the naira (NGN) against the US dollar (USD) and CFA. Between September and October, maize prices declined by about 24, 30, 40, and 47 percent in Dawanau-Kano, Potiskum, Gujungu and Saminaka markets, respectively. Prices for maize and other staple cereals are lower compared to the same period of last year. However, staple food prices remain elevated relative to the two-year and five-year average levels across most markets.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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