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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Conflict and flooding will restrict the otherwise favorable main season production prospects

September 2018

September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Large populations in the northeast remain dependent on assistance to meet their food needs as they face Crisis (IPC Phase 3!), while populations in hard to reach areas with severely limited access to livelihood activities and poorly functioning markets are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Significant areas in the northeast remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, and it is likely that outcomes are similar or worse than in adjoining accessible areas. Additionally, households worst affected by flooding, farmer/pastoralist conflict, and cattle rustling are facing atypical difficulty meeting their food needs.

  • According to the International Organization for Migration, displacement in the northeast has increased since December 2017 due to the volatile security situation in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states. Over 4,000 new arrivals and 707 returnees were recorded between September 3 and 11, with 17 and 53 arrivals noted from Cameroon and Niger, respectively.

  • Between January 1 and September 10, 2018, the Nigerian Center for Disease Control recorded 27,927 suspected cholera cases (compared to 5,264 in 2017) with 517 deaths (compared to 140 in 2017) across 19 states. Flooding continues across the country, causing population displacement, fatalities, and crop losses leading to the declaration of a National Disaster in Niger, Kogi, Anambra and Delta states. The situation in some areas is exacerbated by persisting farmer/pastoralist conflict.

  • Currently, most poor households across the country are accessing early green harvests, agricultural labor work, wild foods consumption, and market purchase to meet their food needs as the growing season progresses favorably. Exceptions are households affected by flooding, farmer/pastoralist conflict, and cattle rustling activities. Conflict-affected households in the northeast continue to depend on humanitarian assistance, though others remain difficult to access by humanitarian actors.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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