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Presence Country
Special Report

Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

February 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region. 

Key Messages

  • Steady increases in oil production and export prices, which have reached a two year high, have supported oil revenues. As a result, foreign exchange reserves (FOREX) have continued to increase. These indicators, combined with an improved inflation rate are continuing to help to gradually bring Nigeria’s economy out of recession. 

  • The value of the Naira (NGN) remains well below historical levels. Nevertheless, there have been slow gains in value in recent months and the gap between the official inter-bank and the parallel market (Bureau de Change) exchange rates continues to narrow. 

  • Nigeria now has a positive balance of trade, which exceeded NGN 1,000 billion (about USD 2.8 billion) for the first time in Q3 2017 since 2014. This is estimated based on the exchange rate at the end of Q3 of 2017.

  • The Nigerian Government announced that rice imports will remain banned for the 2018 consumption year with the goal of encouraging local production while reducing demand for FOREX. Rice prices are generally lower in rice surplus producing areas compared to deficit areas. 

  • Prices are generally higher in northeastern markets. Staple prices in markets such as Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Potiskum are higher than average but are notably declining relative to previous months and are lower than last year at the same time. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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