Seasonal Monitor

Poor rainfall across parts of the Sahelian zone will likely cause planting delays in some areas

July 1, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • As the Intertropical Front continues its northward migration over the region it still remains south of its climatological position resulting in below average rainfall over large portions of the Sahelian zone.

  • Parts of the area affected by significant planting delays (northern Benin, Togo and southwestern Burkina Faso in particular) continue to be affected by below-average and poorly distributed rainfall resulting in unfavorable cropping conditions early in the season.

  • In June crops continue to benefit from generally well distributed and average to above average rainfall in the Bi-modal zone and southern Guinean-Sudanian zone.

  • Given the favorable medium term forecasts, planting activities are expected to continue into the Sahelian zone.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward migration bringing rainfall to much of the Sahelian zone in June. However, its northward progression is still slower than normal, and in the third week of June it remained south of its climatological position over most of the region.
  • The slow northward migration of the ITF resulted in below-average rainfall over central and northwestern Mali, southern Mauritania and Senegal, most of Niger, northwestern and central-north Nigeria, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Cameroon. In these areas planting delays are likely to occur in areas where the start of season is delayed or will be aggravated in areas where the season has already started.
  • In the Bi-modal and the Guinean-Sudan zone rainfall totals in June have been generally average to above average with good temporal distribution providing for favorable cropping conditions for the long season.
  • Warmer Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are known to weaken rainfall accumulation over Sahelian West Africa, but are favorable for rainfall over southern coastal areas. Gulf of Guinea SSTs have started cooling over the past several weeks as predicted by most climatology models. If this cooling trend continues, rainfall over the Sahelian zone could be expected to improve.

Forecasts

  • Most forecast models indicate El Niño will continue through the northern hemisphere summer. El Niño generally correlates with suppressed rainfall over the Sudanian-Sahelian zone and favorable conditions in the Bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zone, but this correlation is known to be weak. The Gulf of Guinea SSTs, however, constitute the strongest driver of the spring and summer weather pattern in West Africa. According to forecasts, the recently observed Gulf of Guinea cooling trend will continue through the summer, which can be associated with penetration of the monsoon northward in continent.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue the next two weeks without any atypical dryness, with rains extending northward through most of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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