Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average rainfall continues across the region

July 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Total seasonal rainfall is above-average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2) with the exception of few small areas in the southern parts of Cote d'Ivoire, Mali and Mauritania.

  • Rainfall deficits are minimal and are not expected to adversely affect crop development.

  • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks (July 26th– Aug 8th) calls for moderate to heavy rains over the entire region, an indication of continued favorable agricultural conditions. Based on the FAO desert locust June bulletin the locust situation was calm but some small scale breeding were reported to have started or forecast in the front line Sahelian countries (Chad, Niger, Mali and Mauritania).  This rainfall forecast over the locust breeding areas in Mali and Niger is likely to  further improve breeding conditions.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) northward migration continues.  It made a big leap during the second dekad of July during which it was located 2-3 degrees of latitude north of its climatological position from Mauritania to Chad (Figure 4).   This has brought mostly average to above-average rainfall over the Sahel and even over the Saharan zone.
  • Rains over the locust breeding grounds in the Saharan zone is expected to create favorable conditions for desert locust swarm development. Close monitoring is, therefore, necessary.
  • Rainfall is currently subsiding in the bi-modal zone with the beginning of the period known as the “minor dry season”, which normally takes place in August.  Consequently, below-average rainfall conditions during this time period in the bi-modal zone are consistent with normal seasonal tendencies.
  • The above-average rainfall in the northern Sahel and Saharan zone has resulted in:
    • Favorable crop and pasture conditions
    • Earlier than normal planting in the northernmost part of the agricultural zone (Figure 3).
    • Suitable conditions for locust breeding
  • In the bi-modal area and the rest of the Guinean zone, the major season is ending and harvests in progress are expected to be average to above average.

FORECASTS

The short and medium-term NOAA/CPC’s forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next two weeks (July28-Aug 3and Aug 4-10) with no expected dry spells.
For the next several three month periods (July-September, August-October, and September-November), seasonal forecasts from the major meteorological centers (ECMWF and NOAA-NCEP) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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