Seasonal Monitor

Average to above average rainfall in July led to relief in areas previously affected by dryness

July 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ITF (Intertropical Front) continues its northward migration and is currently near its average position in its western portion and slightly north of it in its eastern portion.

  • The agrometeorological conditions have significantly improved over areas that previously suffered from below average rainfall, or long dry spells or both (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

  • The major season in the bi-modal zone (March to July) has come to an end with rainfall conditions conducive to an average or above average harvest.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF’s northward migration continues and was positioned at the second dekad of July between 17°N at 20°E and 19.4°N at 5°W.  It is near its average position in its western portion over Mali and Mauritania but 1-2 degrees north of its average position over Niger and Chad.  This has resulted in mostly average to above average rainfall over the region.
  • The seasonal rainfall analysis indicates continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops over most of the region.
    • In the bi-modal and southern part of the Guinean zone the major season has come to an end.
    • From the northern part of the Guinean zone to the pastoral areas in the northern part of the Sahelian zone adequate and well distributed rainfall was helpful for good crop and pasture growth and development over most of the region.  Even areas such as Senegal, southern Mauritania, western Niger, eastern Burkina Faso, southwestern Guinea, Sierra Leone and western Liberia, that previously suffered from dryness and/or poor rainfall distribution (Figure 1) have experienced significant improvement of agrometeorological conditions (Figure 2) following the mostly average to above average rainfall amounts in the second dekad of July.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, is expected to reach its northernmost position within the next two weeks.  Consequently, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally to reach the Saharan zone over Mali, Niger and Chad.  No significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.

FORECASTS

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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