Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average and well distributed rainfall over most of the region except for parts of the west

July 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ITF (Intertropical Front) continued its northward migration; it was located north of its climatological position during the first dekad of July practically throughout the region (Figure 1), which should bring a wet period to the Sahelian zone.

  • The main rainy season from March to July in the bi-modal zone has been characterized by mostly average to above average and well distributed rainfall. 

  • The Sudanian-Guinean zone experienced good rains from early May to the beginning of July (Figure 2).

  • In the Sahelian zone planting took place on time or early, however mostly slight delays have been observed over Guinea Bissau, the Gambia, southern Senegal and extreme western Mali.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The ITF’s northward migration started in early March and is now positioned between 16.0 in eastern Chad and 19.8 degrees of latitude in northwestern Mali in early July.  It is located at its climatological position over southwestern Mauritania and 1-2 degrees north of it over southeastern Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad.
  • Rainfall analysis indicates continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops in the region with few exceptions:
    • The Sahelian zone, where planting delays matter due to the limited length of the growing period, has mostly received adequate and well distributed rainfall during the 1 June – 15 July period.  Consequently, planting has taken place on time or earlier than normal over most of the area with the exception of The Gambia, Senegal, Mauritania and western Mali where planting delays have been observed.  These delays are mostly slight and are not expected to have any negative impact on the season outcome should rainfall conditions continue to be favorable until the end of the season.  However, in western Mali and eastern Senegal 2-3 dekads long delays have been observed and these areas will be closely monitored.
    • In the Sudanian-Guinean zone the agro-climatological conditions have been favorable to planted crops from early May to present despite some areas with delayed planting.  Planting delays of 2-3 dekads have been observed in southern Sierra Leone, southwestern Guinea, southeastern Nigeria and extreme southern Chad. Crops in delay- affected areas are not expected to suffer from any negative effects due to the sufficient length of the growing period.
  • The main rainy season (March to July) in the bimodal zone has nearly ended.  Planted crops have benefited from adequate and well distributed rains, resulting in favorable conditions for crop growth and development. An average to above average maize harvest is expected.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks over most of the region except in the extreme western parts of the region.  This medium-term forecast indicates that wet conditions are expected the first week over northern Senegal and southern Mauritania whereas during the second, dryness is expected to prevail.  The area should continue to be closely monitored.

Forecasts

The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP for the next three-month periods (August to October and September to November) calls for average to above-average rainfall over most of the region with the exception of western Mauritania and parts of the bi-modal zone where below-average rainfall is expected during the August to October period.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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