Remote Monitoring Report

Ongoing harvests improve household food availability

November 2013
2013-Q4-1-1-SN-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Average harvests, average earnings from typical income-generating activities, and declining cereal prices will allow poor households to continue to experience Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between now and March of next year.

  • Ongoing harvests of different crops are improving current food availability for agropastoral households across the country, though northern Matam and localized areas of Louga and Saint Louis are expecting localized, small shortfalls.

  • Following the drop in prices between September and October, cereal prices on retail markets are currently stable. They are lower than last year but are still more than 12 percent above-average. Favorable selling prices for groundnut crops are helping to boost incomes for groundnut farmers and are limiting the supplies of cereals sold on markets.

zone Current anomalies projected anomalies
National No majort anomalies at this time No major aanomalies expected during the outlook period

 

Projected Outlook through March 2014

Harvests of all types of crops are currently underway, with harvests of early-planted millet and maize crops nearly completed. A decrease in production by about 14 percent compared to average is expected based on the average to significant rainfall deficit at the beginning of the growing season and the localized decreases in planted areas, particularly in the northern Matam, Diourbel, Kafrine, Louga, and Fatick regions due to the drought and to coastal flooding (in Saint Louis), as well as in Kedougou, in the southern part of the country. Less affected than other crops, rice-farming activities continue in all rice-growing areas, where crops are progressing well. Preparations for the planting of market garden crops are underway and the harvest outlook is promising with good levels of runoff in riverbelt and dam areas.

This year’s selling price for unshelled groundnuts set by the Coalition Council for the Groundnut Industry is up five percent from the previous marketing season. This hike in the price of groundnuts is allowing farmers to postpone the marketing of cereal crops which, in turn, is minimizing cereal supply in crop-producing areas, where farmers are choosing to sell their groundnut crops rather than their cereal crops. The seasonal decline in producer prices for pulses since last month in all parts of the country has brought the price of groundnuts down by 5 to 20 percent and the price of cowpeas down by 5 to 15 percent. Prices for shelled and unshelled groundnuts are still 3 and 15 percent above-average, respectively.

Cereal supplies are up slightly from last month on source markets and are more or less unchanged on retail markets. These market supplies consist of last year’s carry-over inventories from farmers taking advantage of favorable terms of trade with the good price of groundnuts. With the replenishment of household food stocks and the large earnings from the sale of groundnut crops, there will not be any major increase in market supplies at this time. Demand is down in rural areas with the availability of early crops ensuring household food supplies.

Retail market prices for locally grown cereal crops have been relatively stable. Prices on certain markets are up slightly from September by one to three percent due to the heavy demand engendered by the religious holidays at the beginning of the month. In general, prices are lower than last year, except in Dakar, where they are up by approximately seven percent. Prices across the country are above the five-year average by 12 to 25 percent. An adequate supply of imported rice, the main food cereal, plus the availability of locally grown rice crops in riverbelt areas, are helping to stabilize and, in some cases, bring down the price of rice compared with figures for last month. Prices for imported rice are more or less unchanged from last month, down by approximately seven percent from last year, and 10 percent below the five-year average.

With the good supply of pasture and high levels of animal watering holes, there should be a steady supply of animal products between now and March of next year. Sales of livestock, milk, and dairy products will generate average levels of income for pastoralists, helping to facilitate their market access. Livestock supply is down after the heavy demand for the celebration of Tabaski, while prices are still above-average and up from last year.

In addition to their own on-farm production, ongoing harvests are providing poor households in crop-growing areas with food and income-generating opportunities on the farms of better-off households. Average levels of income from the sale of their crops and their usual income-generating activities such as petty trade, wage labor, and the sale of firewood should enable poor households in all parts of the country to maintain their food access between November and March of next year. Most households around the country will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) until the beginning of next year’s lean season. However, poor households in areas impacted by production shortfalls in the Louga, Matam, and Diourbel regions in particular will resort to coping strategies to meet their food needs after the end of March.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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